Friday, 2nd February 2024
Harry Derham’s been bowling along happily – 93 runners since 1st September producing 27 winners at 29%....
What’s missing from the list is a big pot….
…. a win in a BIG race…. a big competitive valuable handicap….
…. one of those winners that catches the eye on ‘live’ terrestrial TV in front of a Saturday afternoon audience….
…. but it’s surely only a matter of time before Derham – a talented young guy who worked as Assistant Trainer to Paul Nicholls – obliges….
He’s got a good chance with SCAMALLACH LIATH in tomorrow’s Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown (3.10)….
At 8s – I’d like 10s – he’s on the shorter side….
…. but I like him at that price better than I like alternatives at bigger prices….
…. and that’s the bottom line….
His hurdling improved immediately on joining Derham from Oliver Sherwood at the start of the season….
…. winning in the first of two goes at Ascot – Derham having removed the cheekpieces – and producing consecutive RPRs in the 120s….
Last time he got beaten off a mark of 118 – but it was very close and he was giving the horse that beat him 23lb….
…. I’m also mindful that the 3rd horse and the 5th horse have franked the form with wins of their own….
In other words, it’s not a disaster….
…. on another day – in different circumstances – Scamallach Liath might well have run out the winner of a race that looks better than the bare form might imply….
Chasing is the future for this horse – but connections will want to make a few quid out of his hurdle mark before he switches disciplines….
He turns out tomorrow ahead of his official rating of 123….
…. still a novice….
…. on his first go for proper money….
… and with easier options available to him….
But he’s only going to get so many opportunities to strike it rich over timber….
…. connections are rolling the dice now – so expect him to be prepped and tuned to do his best….
What that best amounts to – or how well-handicapped he is (or not) – is anybody’s guess….
…. but I expect him to get competitive….
GROZNI has taken a step forward for James Owen since arriving from Charles Byrnes….
…. and – up at a general 9s – he’s my bet in the Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase at Sandown (3.45)….
The 8yo is a relatively recent convert to fencing after a hurdling career in Ireland where he never rated better than 130….
But don’t worry about that. That was then – this is now. And right now Grozni is progressive….
It’s only in his runs for Owen (his last two) that he’s had a chase mark. But they were his best two – chases or fences – and I like the step back up to 3-miles….
The pick of his hurdle form was at 3m but over fences he’s done almost all his racing over shorter – and remains unexposed at a trip I’d expect to improve him….
The other thing I like is the booking of Harry Cobden – replacing the 7lb claimer who rode the horse the last two times….
Perhaps the lad is at a wedding. Perhaps the owner wants a fancy name next to his horse on the race card. Who knows….
…. but Cobden is a big-race rider and represents another potential source of improvement for the horse….
I’m swinging the bat and backing CASTLE ROBIN at 16s & 14s in the Edinburgh National Handicap Chase at Musselburgh (2.15)….
His run in the bet365 Handicap Chase at Doncaster back in December is better than I thought at the time….
It was the 9yo’s first (and only) run this term and – in that context – it was an encouraging performance to finish 5/11 and beaten 7.25 lengths over the 3m trip….
…. he will surely strip fitter for a race in which he was kept to his work all the way….
And the form has worked out okay….
…. with winner Forward Plan running another belter in Saturday’s Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster – getting pipped by Annual Invictus….
I guess a lot of punters were expecting Castle Robin to turn out at Sandown for the Virgin Bet Master Handicap Chase – the race he won last year….
That would make sense when you think he’s rated just a pound higher on 135….
…. but connections are going the other way and stepping him up to the 4m trip….
Who knows how he will fare – like many of tomorrow’s opponents he will need to bake the proof into the pudding….
But given he’s had just one run you’d have to think this is a target for the season – rather than a second prep or a runabout….
…. and given they’re swerving a race they won last year – and while on favourable terms too…
…. you’d have to think connections are ‘feeling the vibe’ to roll the dice that way….
…. or maybe they’re just a pack of lunatics….
Either way, they were talking last term about him being a horse with a big pot in him….
It didn’t happen – for whatever reason – but he retains that potential and is a big price….
Paul O’Brien’s absence from the saddle is an issue. But you can’t have it all. And I’ve backed winners before with the ‘wrong’ jockey on….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets for tomorrow…. In the 3.10 @ Sandown….
e/w terms = William Hill, Sky Bet & 888sport are 1/5 the first 5. It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally…. In the 3.45 @ Sandown….
e/w terms = Sky Bet, Betfred, Livescore & Boylesports are 1/5 the first 4. It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally…. In the 2.15 @ Musselburgh….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally Advised prices are correct at the point of publication – but prices are subject to fluctuation. Consult Oddschecker – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back next week….
Meantime – Contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….
Stay tuned….
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