The pick of the Saturday prices....

Friday, 16th February 2024

The pick of the Saturday prices….

Gavin Cromwell has come to Britian with plenty of live ammunition over the winter….

…. 38 qualifying runners have produced nine wins at 23.7%....

…. and I like his YEAH MAN at 15/2 to run a big race in tomorrow afternoon’s Grand National Trial Handicap Chase at Haydock (3.15)….

He’s only run twice this term and turns-up fresher than most….

First time up at Ascot in November’s Sodexo Gold Cup….

…. he seemed certain to mount a serious challenge to the winner when getting it wrong and coming down at the last….

Next time – at the same track and up against the same winner (won again off 4lb higher) – in December’s Silver Cup….

…. he lost out by less than a length after finishing very strongly….

He ran in those races off 128 and 130 and gets to go again off 130 tomorrow….

Yes – he’s yet to pop his cherry over fences despite having had eight goes….

…. but he strikes me as a horse unlucky not to win at least one of his races this term….

…. and in my mind he’s a horse ahead of his official rating….

He’s been highly-tried for a horse that still ranks a novice – I don’t think connections lack for any belief in him….

…. and I’m not concerned about the extra half-mile tomorrow – not with the way he finished that last time at Ascot….

He only had one behind him at the second last but fairly motored from there to go down by the short margin….

Another 50-yards and he would have overhauled the winner and left him behind….

…. and he looks like he’ll relish the additional yardage tomorrow’s race offers….

He could have gone back to Ascot tomorrow – where he’s run so well the last twice – for the Swinley – over the same 3m trip….

…. and where he would have carried bottom weight of 10-6….

…. but they’ve come here because he’s going to be a better horse for the stamina test – and an improved performance will put him right in the mix….

I like the first-time cheekpieces too – an adjustment that suggests connections want to cover every angle to give the horse best chance…. 

• ‘…. potentially very well-handicapped’….

I’m backing SHAN BLUE at the general 7s in tomorrow’s Swinley Handicap Chase at Ascot (3.00)….

He hasn’t won since coming out on top in the G1 Kauto Star at Kempton in Christmas 2020….

He’d looked like a young chaser going places….

…. but he hasn’t been the same horse since a heavy fall in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby in October 2021….

…. when well clear of the opposition and looking a certain winner….

His winless sequence amounts to 10 runs….

…. and ahead of an appearance in the Howden at Ascot just before Christmas he’d pulled-up in three races on the bounce….

…. looking for all the world like a busted flush….

The Howden is contested over 2m3f and the application of first-time cheekpieces appeared to help….

…. he finished the race (a major step forward) and he was beaten (into 3rd) less than a length – posting an encouraging 146 on the RPR scale….

…. and the second horse has won subsequently and gone up 7lbs….

Shan Blue’s back up to 3-miles tomorrow – which would be his optimum trip….

…. the cheekpieces are retained….

…. and on a mark of 143 he’s potentially very well-handicapped….

Has Skelton really got him back? Was the Ascot race a flash in the pan? Can Shan Blue be relied upon to go forward again?

Who knows….

…. but taking that last race at face value – he showed something of his old self and is weighted to be there or thereabouts tomorrow – if he turns up….

• ‘…. a case of strike while the iron’s hot ’….

JAY JAY REILLY at the general 14s is my bet for the Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards Handicap Hurdle at Ascot (2.25)….

He was underestimated for last month’s Lanzarote at Kempton by everybody – including me – which he won at an SP of 33s….

…. and I think he’s underestimated again tomorrow for this – with Harry Skelton picking him over the other two horses his brother runs….

He’s up 7lb for the Lanzarote win to 139 – a mark sufficient to get him into the Coral Cup at the Festival….

…. yet he turns up here ….

…. with the claimer off and the yard’s non-claiming number one rider on….

They won’t be running him for fitness….

…. or in the hope of getting his mark trimmed….

…. so I can only assume this is a case of strike while the iron’s hot….

He’s had four weeks off to recover from his Kempton exertions and I think there’s more to come….

…. and he’s a nice price for a horse that’s only had six runs over hurdles and who remains progressive….

• Finally….

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back next week….

Meantime – Contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd