Friday, 1st March 2024
BILL BAXTER hasn’t really backed-up on his win in the Topham last April….
…. but I like him at the general 10s for tomorrow’s Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury (1.55)….
He produced a solid- enough seasonal debut at Carlisle over 2m4f on soft ground – giving weight to better-rated horses….
…. but he must have made a noise that afternoon because he was given a wind-op shortly afterwards….
The ground wasn’t right at Newbury in the Coral Gold Trophy next time….
…. and the time after that at Haydock in the Tommy Whittle – on ground that would have suited – he didn’t convince at the trip….
He didn’t convince connections either – because next time at Cheltenham he was back down to the 2m4f trip….
Reported to be in seriously good health and on the pace early-doors, the ground wasn’t on his side and after making a mistake at fence 10 he was back-peddling….
Tomorrow he gets the 2m4f trip on genuine soft ground at a flat track – off a mark 8lb lower than his peak rating and just 2lb higher than his winning mark in the Topham….
…. and if he gets into a nice rhythm he could prove difficult to pass….
I think he’s nicely rated again now and – with conditions pretty much ideal – he’s a nice price too….
Cheekpieces have seen ERNE RIVER return to something like the form that saw him sent off second favourite for a G1 novice chase a couple years back….
He’s never previously raced at the 3m2f trip but on soft ground at Doncaster….
…. a track he really likes….
…. he makes appeal at the 8s for tomorrow’s Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (3.40)….
Fitted with the headgear for the first time, he won a small-field affair at the track back in December….
…. for which he was raised just 3lb….
Next time against a bigger field in the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase….
…. up against much stiffer opposition and on ground that would have been quick enough for him….
…. he ran a cracker to finish 5/18 and beaten 6.75 lengths….
The second horse home that day – Forward Plan – won last week’s Coral Trophy at Kempton….
…. whilst the fourth horse – Sail Away – ran a personal best next time out when far from disgraced in a G1 off levels against horses rated 20lb+ better….
It looks like decent form….
…. and on softer ground still….
…. in what is a less demanding race on paper….
…. he could prove well-handicapped on 137 – some 7lb below a peak rating that might well have underestimated him at the time….
BALLYGEARY is a nice price at 16s & 14s for the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso (2.50)….
He was well-fancied last time for the Scottish County Hurdle at Musselburgh – sent off the 4/1 second favourite….
He finished 5/13 beaten 4.25 lengths and was bang there with the winner at the final hurdle – where he kind of got worried out of it….
Perhaps it was inexperience….
…. perhaps it was a loss of concentration….
…. whatever it was – the first time cheekpiece are on tomorrow and Brian Hughes retains the ride….
…. in what amounts to a second go at a decent prize for the duo….
I think he’s a big price considering he ran so deep in the Musselburgh race….
…. and if the cheekpieces keep him honest then he can run a big one….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets for tomorrow…. In the 1.55 @ Newbury….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 4. It’s 1/5 the first 3 generally…. In the 3.40 @ Doncaster….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/4 the first 5. It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally…. In the 2.50 @ Kelso….
e/w terms = bet365, Sky Bet, William Hill & Betway are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally…. Advised prices are correct at the point of publication – but prices are subject to fluctuation. Consult Oddschecker – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back next week….
Meantime – Contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….
Stay tuned….
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