The pick of the Saturday prices....

Friday, 22nd March 2024

The pick of the Saturday prices….

A change of pace this weekend….

…. with the feature handicaps provided by the opening meeting of the 2024 flat season up at Doncaster….

There’s little or no form in the book….

…. fitness has to be taken on trust to a large extent….

…. underfoot conditions are testing….

…. and with a long season stretching out in front of us this meeting will be a mere starting point for many runners….

That said – in terms of the betting – the drill remains exactly the same for me….

It’s about taking on the favourites and the heavily-fancied horses….

…. and digging out underestimated contenders that can run big races at BIG prices….

The big race on the Doncaster card is the Lincoln at 3.35….

…. and the bet for me is NAVAGIO at the 25s….

Trainer James Horton has a new base….

…. and this 5yo….

…. fresh off the boat from Ireland where he was trained by Ray Cody….

…. can get a new era off to a great start for this young handler….

They’ll still be learning about the horse….

….. but he stays a mile strong….

…. he’s got plenty of form on testing ground….

…. and he’s on the right side of the draw in stall 1 – with most of the likely pace set to be found on that side of the track….

I like the booking of Richard Kingscote and I think he’s a big price with the bookies paying out on up to 7 places….

Earlier on the card in the Spring Mile at 2.25 I’m siding with EXPRESSIONLESS at the 16s….

He hit the ground running in the spring of last term – albeit in lesser races than this – with soft underfoot conditions enabling him to produce a brace of wins….

He was given a break after that and didn’t return to the track until the autumn – soft ground appears to be the key to him….

…. but he couldn’t recapture his form at Goodwood – where the trainer reported the track didn’t suit – or at Newmarket….

He had two goes on the AW over the winter – fitted with cheekpieces – and produced more encouraging signs….

Tomorrow, I’m looking for him to start this season like he did the last….

…. and I like the fact that he’s down to a mark of 76 – just 2lbs ahead of his last winning mark….

Given the races he was contesting last term, this is an interesting target first-time up on ground that will suit and off a mark that could prove generous….

Down at Newbury in the Get Best Odds Guaranteed At BetVictor Handicap Chase at 2.40….

…. I’m taking a chance on the rag of the seven declared runners – GUSTAVIAN at 11s….

Unlike Solo and Sir Psycho – for example – who are not best-handicapped in my view….

…. Anthony Honeyball’s charge simply has to be well-treated on a mark of 129 – down from 137 at the start of the season….

…. if he can put it all together….

If is a big word of course – and carries a lot of contingent meaning….

…. and the horse hasn’t dropped down the handicap for no reason….

He’s down to a mark of 129 because his recent performances tell the handicapper that’s where he should be….

…. but he’s performed most recently with more credit than a bare reading of the form suggests….

He unseated at Kempton – but then put in a foot-perfect round of jumping without his jockey….

…. and last time at Newbury he showed some tenacity, stuck to the task, and finished third….

Heltenham beat him well that last day – and reopposes tomorrow….

…. but Gustavian isn’t incapable of beating that one on tomorrow’s terms….

He beat him home at Aintree in November – giving him a pound. Tomorrow he’s in receipt of 7lbs….

He gets something close to an ideal set up, he’s starting to look dangerously well-handicapped, and the price is there to be shot at….

• Finally….

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back next week….

Meantime – Contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd