The pick of the prices on Day 3 at Aintree....

Friday, 12th April 2024

The pick of the prices on Day 3 at Aintree….

It’s the big one tomorrow at Aintree – the Grand National (4.00)….

The maximum field size is reduced to 34 runners – in a bid to improve safety….

…. and who could argue with that?

The upside for ‘pub’ punters is that just five e/w bets might provide sufficient diversification this year….

…. instead of the usual six!

Myself, I make do with two selections….

I have a proper go at picking out the winner….

…. and I like to have one at bigger odds….

…. one that can run into a place and produce a payout that would be as good as a winner any other week….

MAHLER MISSION is my idea of the winner – and the general 12s is good enough….

He was last seen finishing a good runner-up in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury in December….

…. where he travelled strongly – looking the winner at one point – before conceding the race on the landing side of the final fence….

He lost both front shoes during the race….

…. which wouldn’t have helped….

…. and I hope the special shoes connections fit to this flat-footed 8yo stay on tomorrow….

His fitness has to be taken on merit….

…. but he’s been kept under wraps for this very target since the Newbury run….

…. he’s had a couple of racecourse runs….

…. he’s been popping the National fences at the Curragh….

…. he’s missed no work at home….

…. and he’s reported to have had a better prep for this assignment than he did for Newbury….

You never know until you know, of course….

…. and going into a Grand National fresh is a concern….

…. but I’m going to trust shrewd trainer John McConnell to have him just right….

This horse is a good jumper….

…. he stays well….

…. he won’t mind the soft ground….

…. and he’s got the right kind of ‘look’ for this race….

There’s a lot to like….

The other one I’m backing is last year’s seventh – ROI MAGE – at the general 50s….

He’s 12 now….

….  and you have to go all the way back to 2004 and Amberleigh House to find the last horse to win the race at that age….

Fair enough….

…. but the price is the price, I don’t need him to win and I think he’s a fair bet to hit the frame – with up to 7 places on offer….

He ran a cracker in the race last year….

…. he only got beaten 14-lengths….

…. he’s rated 2lb lower this time….

…. he carries 1lb less….

…. he’s 15lb better off with Corach Rambler….

…. he’s better off with Vanillier and Noble Yeats….

…. and I liked his prep run at Down Royal last time out….

He went into that race 85% to 90% fit according to trainer Patrick Griffin….

…. and he’ll come on for that….

He’s reported to have come into his coat….

…. and his work rider says the horse pulled his arms out of their sockets on Sunday morning….

The softer ground this year will suit better too…. and James Reveley comes over from France to do the steering….

I just think this horse is underestimated – because of his age….

…. and I think he can go deep at a big price….

• My other bets tomorrow….

I’m backing LORD SNOOTIE in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle at Aintree (1.20)….

…. I think he’s a massive price at the 16s….

Yes, I watched him at Uttoxeter – where he was reluctant to race and sent a lot of fav-backers to the poor house….

…. but he’s reported to have resented the tongue-tie….

…. and I can understand that – I’d probably resent it myself….

I can forgive a horse a blip….

…. while the market can heavily overreact to these things….

…. especially when it concerns a backed horse….

The time before that at Haydock Lord Snootie chased home Cuthbert Dibble….

…. who subsequently ran big in the Pertemps Final – at Haydock….

He’s up just 3lb for that to 125….

…. I think he remains well-handicapped….

…. and he meets his Haydock conqueror on 4lb better terms tomorrow….

…. while being 2.5 times the price….

…. and the tongue tie is off….

There’s always a risk with this type of bet

…. but the price is there….

…. and I’m a punter that likes to swing the bat….

Finally, in the William Hill Handicap Chase at Aintree (2.30)….

…. I’m backing KILBEG KING at the general 12s….

He’s yet to win a race over fences

…. but he’s only had five goes to date….

…. he’s been highly-tried in novice events….

…. he’s done well….

…. and back at 3-miles in a handicap off a mark of 140….

…. this is an opportunity….

• Finally….

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back next week….

Meantime – Contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd

P.S. To view my selections for this afternoon’s races, click here….