The pick of the prices on Day 2 at Epsom....

Friday, 31st May 2024

The pick of the prices on Day 2 at Epsom….

It’s Day 1 of the Derby meeting at Epsom….

I’m targeting four races this afternoon….

…. three handicaps and the Oaks….

Selections were distributed via email yesterday….

…. if you missed that you can catch up here….

By hook or by crook, yesterday’s forecast rain missed the track….

Underfoot conditions have improved – and the ground is now good to soft….

Another dry day is forecast and the ground will be better again tomorrow….

…. if the weather forecasters can be trusted – and that’s a big if….

Today the focus in this column is the Saturday card at Epsom….

On we go….

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In the Dash – 3.45….

DREAM COMPOSER is turned around quickly after running a cracker at Goodwood last week….

…. and looks a decent price at this morning’s 11s….

He’ll need to take to the Epsom track – but he enjoys the ups and downs at Goodwood and he might just take to tomorrow’s assignment….

For all he stays 6f– his best performances have come at the minimum trip….

…. and given there’s a stack of early pace in tomorrow’s race his stamina could prove a handy tool to have in the box tomorrow….

The key thing is he’s in good form and he’s weighted to be on the premises if he runs his race….

He’s up 2lb for last week’s effort and runs off 89 tomorrow – a full 7lb below the mark he won off at Sandown last summer….

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In the Long Shot Northern Dancer Handicap – 5.15

I thought RELENTLESS VOYAGER ran a cracker on his return at Newmarket….

…. and he’s a decent price for this at the 9s….
 
The Newmarket run was his first since last June and his first since being gelded….

He stayed on well at the death – without being given a hard time of it by Oisin Murphy….

Andew Balding expressed himself as ‘thrilled’ with the run and talks about the 4yo as a horse for the Ebor….

…. so you’d think there’s more to come yet off a mark of 101….

I’d imagine he’ll strip fitter for that first run in a while….

…. and I note that the tongue tie – left off at Newmarket – is back on tomorrow….

He’s fair value at the price….

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In the JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap – 5.50….

RUSSET GOLD at 8s is the pick….

He was well-fancied for last season’s 3yo Dash at this track – sent off the second favourite in a field of 14 at 11/2….

A cursory reading of the placings – he finished 11th and beaten 8.25 lengths – might give the impression that he bombed out and didn’t take to the track….

…. but that would be wrong because he was brutally interfered with early doors – losing his chance completely….

He warmed up for tomorrow’s assignment with a performance at Ascot that delivered a fresh career top under a first-time ride from James Doyle – Roger Varian’s new number one….

…. looking very much like he’s progressed from 3 to 4….

He’s gone up 2lb for the defeat – he finished 3/9 beaten a half-length – which is never ideal….

…. but he could very well improve for his second run – as plenty of Varian’s have this term….

He’s a fair bet at the price….

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In the Derby – 4.30….

City of Troy has big questions to answer – but if he bounces back to full strength then he’ll take all the beating….

If he doesn’t – then it’s absolutely wide open because this isn’t a strong edition of the race….

…. 20 of the last 25 winners had already registered an RPR of 118+. This time only one horse – City of Troy has managed that….

Placers at big prices are no rarity in the Derby and this year’s race is particularly muddling – offering exactly the kind of environment in which to swing the bat….

DEIRA MILE doesn’t have the profile that yells-out ‘Derby winner!’….

…. but this is no ordinary renewal and he does have attributes that suggest he is capable of being more competitive than this morning’s 25s suggest….

He ran well when stepped up to G1 level in last season’s Futurity over an inadequate trip….

…. he would have learnt plenty from his facile win at Windsor over 10f in April….

…. he stays well and looks nailed on to get – and to improve for – tomorrow’s trip….

…. and he handles all kinds of ground….

He also ran a good gallop on the Epsom track – giving Jim Crowley a ‘good feel’ – just over a week ago….

…. and you can’t underestimate that track experience – it’s a real edge….

He impressed onlookers that morning and appears to be learning at a rate of knots….

He’s not got the big form figure in the book – but that could all change tomorrow with first-time cheekpieces helping his concentration in the late stages of the race….

And don’t forget – owner Ahmad Al Shaikh has finished 2nd in this race twice with horses that seemed to have no chance ahead of the off….

…. Khalifa Sat was sent off at 50s in 2020 and Hoo Ya Mal was sent off at 150s in 2022….

• Finally….

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back next week….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd