Friday, 28th June 2024
The big handicap action is served up exclusively at Newcastle tomorrow….
…. and there are four decent races to target on the tapeta surface….
If you missed yesterday’s column – I highlighted some angles, pointers & clues you might find of some interest….
…. some comments on the draw in the Northumberland Plate….
…. a few proven field-splitters for that race….
…. a word on how the money has spoken in recent years….
…. and a couple of off-piste bets that the sweet spots in the stats suggest are worth striking….
Earlier in the week I took a trio of horses out of the Royal Ascot handicaps –
…. horses that could well land big pots at some stage this summer – and which I’ve added to my Watch List….
Now, let’s get down to tomorrow’s action….
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In the 3.10 – Newcastle….
EVALUATION looks overpriced at the 16s & 14s in the Northumberland Plate….
He’s got form at the trip and was 4th in the Vase over course and distance a couple of years back….
…. when he was running for Keith Dalgliesh….
He went to Charlie Johnston for a bit after that before turning up at Lucinda Russell’s yard in February….
He’s had two runs for her – coming nowhere in a C3 handicap at Southwell….
… before winning off a reduced mark at Wolverhampton in April….
That might have been a springboard to an active early-season campaign….
…. but he’s been held back and targeted at this and I think he’s got a ‘live’ chance at a fancy price….
He runs off 88 and if he’s primed and ready to run up to some of his better back form – he could prove generously weighted….
It’s Russell’s one runner of the day at the track and she’s booked Andrew Mullen – who knows his way around the place – for the ride….
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In the 2.35 – Newcastle….
Not many jump out as obvious contenders in the Northumberland Vase….
…. and I totally get punters wanting to jump on the favourite – Alphonse Le Grande – who is very much in form and on the up-and-up….
But he’s short enough at 11/4….
…. and I prefer to take him on with his trainer’s other runner – BELGOPRINCE – at the general 13/2….
He ran a cracker in preparation over hurdles at Sligo….
…. where he was a half-length runner-up on his debut for his new yard – after being dispersed from Tony Martin’s operation….
It was his first go for 62 days and only his second go since Christmas….
…. and I’d like to think that pipe-opener will have put him spot-on for a big follow-up performance tomorrow….
There’s no problem with him in regard to the trip….
…. I think he’s loads better on the flat than he is over hurdles….
…. and he’s shown that he’s in good fettle – which is more than you can say about a number of his opponents tomorrow….
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In the 1.35 – Newcastle….
CROSS THE TRACKS has done nothing wrong this term and looks a nice price at the general 11s & 10s….
Life is harder – for sure – now that he’s up to 86 for a win over visibly lesser opposition over course and distance last time….
…. but this is a young horse on a progressive streak and he could well have more to give yet….
He gets in at the bottom of the weights and there’s not a lot of early pace in the race….
…. so he might get to do his own thing up front under Billy Loughnane – a nice booking – which is pretty much the ideal scenario….
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In the 3.40 – Newcastle….
A rise of 6lb for his win at Kempton earlier in the month looks surmountable for LOCAL HERO – the pick for this one at the general 11/2….
He gives the impression there’s loads more to come yet….
…. and tomorrow – on his second handicap assignment – is an ideal opportunity to take another step up the ladder….
He was sent to Doncaster at the end last season to contest a Listed race – but got bogged down on the soft surface….
They obviously thought he was pretty decent then – and I don’t imagine they got to the bottom of him in that C4 handicap for 3yos at Kempton….
He’s potentially pretty smart and he’s a player under Hollie Doyle….
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The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets for tomorrow…. In the 3.10 @ Newcastle….
e/w terms = Sky Bet pay 7 places. William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power & 888 Sport are paying 6 places. It’s 5 places generally…. In the 2.35 @ Newcastle….
e/w terms = Sky Bet pay 5 places. It’s 4 places generally…. In the 1.35 @ Newcastle….
e/w terms = It’s 4 places generally…. In the 3.40 @ Newcastle….
e/w terms = It’s 4 places generally…. Advised prices are correct at the point of publication – but subject to fluctuation. Shop around – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
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That’s all for today….
I’ll be back next week….
Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….
Stay tuned….
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