The pick of the Arc prices....

Saturday, 5th October 2024

The pick of the Arc prices….

One consistent theme in the build up to tomorrow’s Arc at Longchamp (3.20)….

…. is how open and competitive a renewal it looks on paper….

Of course, races are not run on paper….

…. and racing has a long-established and deeply-ingrained habit of blasting apart preconceptions by producing outcomes that were difficult – if not impossible – to predict pre-race….

But it does indeed look a pretty open renewal with 15 of the 16 intended runners separated by just 6lbs in terms of best RPRs achieved to date out on the track….

…. and in this kind of environment it could very well be the race conditions and the way the weights are framed that tips the balance one way or the other….

The most (potentially) advantaged horses in tomorrow’s race are the 3yo fillies – who get the weight-for-age concession plus the fillies allowance….

In other words, they get weight from all their opponents….

…. and in a year when everything seems so tight and competitive that could be a significant edge….

The one that appeals to me is AVENTURE at the general 20s….

She came off second best to Bluestocking (supplemented for tomorrow’s race at a cost of £100k) in the Prix Vermeille on Trials Day….

…. but that might be a bit of a false reading given that they went toe-to-toe in the closing stages of the race and a bit of bumping maybe resulted in Aventure losing a little momentum at a time that left no hope of full recovery….

Only Sparkling Party (who runs in tomorrow’s Prix de l'Opera Longines) ran a faster final 3f than Aventure in what was the quickest-run of the Arc trials….

…. and there’s no doubt the 12f trip improved Christophe Ferland’s charge….

She’s by Sea The Stars, there’s more to come yet, and whilst she hasn’t won a G1, she might have been a little unlucky last time….

…. and out of stall 4 tomorrow afternoon she’s got every chance of getting into the mix at a price….

And that’s what it’s all about for me….

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That’s all for today….

I’ll be back next week….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd