The pick of the Saturday prices....

Friday, 11th October 2024

The pick of the Saturday prices….

It’s pretty much the last big day of the flat season for handicap punters….

…. but at least we go out in some style with three big-field affairs to target at Newmarket and York….

The Cesarewitch at Newmarket (3.40) is the showpiece handicap event of the day….

…. notwithstanding the fact that 25 is the second-lowest turnout this century….

If you missed my key field-splitters earlier in the week – catch up here….

Up at York we’ve got the Coral Sprint Trophy (2.40) over the straight 6f trip….

…. with a maximum field of 22 set to slog it out….

And earlier on the York card a field of 15 will contest the Coral “Daily Rewards Shaker” Handicap (2.05) over the 10f trip….

Let’s get to it….

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Five of the last six winners of the Cesarewitch (3.40) were trained in Ireland….

…. and jumps horses have a strong record in the race – winning 11 of the last 18 renewals….

The stats suggest that a dual-code performer trained in Ireland is a solid percentage play….

…. and I concur….

But which one – given that a dozen of tomorrow’s 25 runners fit the bill….

The options are narrowed down a little (for me at least) by the fact that two qualifiers are right at the top of the market….

Sea Of Sands is up at 4s….

…. and Jacovec Cavern is no better than 6s this morning….

Trained by Willie Mullins – whose won the race three times since 2018….

…. and Emmet Mullins – who won the race last year….

…. both are obvious players fielded by exceptional target trainers – and you can understand why the bookies are ultra-cautious….

Either one could well win like a Group horse – but I could never take prices like that in a race like this….

…. and – whilst I like Gavin Cromwell’s Sixandahalf (who I’ll probably have as part of a Swinger perm with the Tote)….

…. preference at the prices is for Gordon Elliott’s NDAAWI at the general 12s (with a bit of 14s still about)….

I like his record in high-quality big-field handicaps….

… he finished 3/24 in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival in March….

…. and 2/19 in the Galway Hurdle in July….

In between times he took in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting where – despite finishing 7/22 and beaten a good 11.5 lengths – he suggested he will get tomorrow’s lesser trip….

He’s been used sparingly across the summer and looks like a horse for the big day – and the big prize….

One thing is for sure. With Jame Spencer booked for the rides – the 4yo will be ridden to ensure the best placing possible….

With the exception of Ryan Moore, there’s been no better pilot to go to war with in this race across the last couple of decades….

And it wouldn’t be the first time Elliott and Spencer have won good money together in big handicaps….

The pair teamed up with Pallasator to win the 2018 edition of the Queen Alexandria at Royal Ascot….

…. and previous to that they won the 2010 Ebor in combination with Dirar….

I expect a big run….

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I love the sprints….

…. and in the last big one of the year at York – the Coral Sprint Trophy (2.40)….

…. I reckon the best of the pace is located in the high-numbered stalls….

…. and that’s a big boost to the chances of EYE OF DUBAI who can be backed at the 12s this morning (with some 14s & even 16s available in places)….

He won at Ripon last time out – just a fortnight back – on soft ground….

…. he’s only up 2lbs for that to a mark of 86….

…. and he’s still pretty lightly raced for a sprinter and open to more improvement yet….

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In the Coral "Daily Rewards Shaker" Handicap at York (2.05)….

…. I’m having a swing of the bat at the rag in the field – PADDY THE SQUIRE – who can be backed at the general 20s….

On the back of a break of almost a year he returned to the track in August….

…. getting beaten a short head at Hamilton….

…. before shaping well once again at Chester the following month – where he was done no favours by the winner….

Next time at Newmarket in the Cambridgeshire he was sent off a shorter price than he is for this easier contest tomorrow….

He was on the wrong side of the track that afternoon – and I can draw a line through his down-the-field finish….

He steps back up in trip tomorrow but he’ll have no problem whatsoever getting home on ground that will suit – he stays as far as 12f….

He’s only won one of his nine assignments to date….

…. but he’s finished second on four occasions and was beaten less than a length in two of those….

Had those races gone differently he’d rate higher on the scale….

…. and I believe he’s a progressive horse who remains well-handicapped on his mark of 86….

He’s got a nice racing weight tomorrow – getting weight from all but three of his opponents on ground that will test – and he can outrun his big price….

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Just a reminder….

…. if you pay for your ATC subscription via Direct Debit….

…. a little later today you’ll receive formal notification of the minor amendment to the reference that will appear on your bank statement from November onwards….

Like I said yesterday – it’s nothing to worry about. It’s just an administrative change in the background at our end that we’re duty-bound to inform you about….

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back next week….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd