Pulling the trigger in the Saturday handicaps....

Friday, 22nd November 2024

Pulling the trigger in the Saturday handicaps….

The Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle at Haydock (2.30) is the feature betting heat for handicap punters this weekend….

The Twiston-Davies team field PUSH THE BUTTON – up at the general 14s – and he’s the pick of the prices in my book….

The lightly-raced 5yo was outpaced at Cheltenham last month on handicap debut over the 2m4f trip….

…. but he stayed on well in the later stages of the race – giving the impression that the step up to 3-miles tomorrow will suit him down to the ground….

The Cheltenham run was his first appearance on the race track since winning at Warwick on soft ground almost a year ago – and he produced a career-best on the RPR scale….

Last term he improved 10lbs for his first run – and I’d like to think he’ll come on for last month’s assignment….

…. and it’s likely an odds-on chance that he’ll prove better than his current rating of 132 at some point going forward….

Whether or not that becomes apparent tomorrow is open to conjecture….

…. but a softening surface holds no fear….

…. the trip and positive tactics have the potential to unlock plenty of improvement….

…. and Sam Twiston-Davies has a better record than most at the Merseyside track….

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DARE TO SHOUT steps up to the 3-mile trip for the first time in the Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase at Haydock (3.40)….

…. and ranks a decent bet at the general 8s….

He’s stepping up in class and taking on some decent horses – big money winners like Le Milos, My Silver Lining, and Fontaine Collonges….

…. and it should be noted that Ann Hamilton’s charge has only raced twice over fences and lacks the experience of some of those he’ll be taking on….

But he’s by Martaline – who sired the likes of Dynaste and Ramses De Teillee – and he’s expected to improve for tomorrow’s longer trip….

And the lack of experience can be an advantage in handicaps….

…. the official assessor’s had limited opportunities to get to grips with him – and there’s a good chance he’s quite a bit ahead of a current rating of 132….

It could be that tomorrow’s assignment proves to be more of a learning experience than a revelation. In other words, Dare To Shout might not be quite up to the task – yet….

…. but it could also prove to be a shrewd bit of placement from the Hamilton team….

Some of tomorrow’s opposition will be having their first run of the season….

…. and others need to improve – markedly – from what they produced on reappearance….

Meanwhile, Dare To Shout turns up on the back of two decent performances – albeit it at a lower level – that testify both to fitness and an upward curve of progression….

…. and he won’t mind the forecast rain and softening ground either….

Haydock is a ball-ache of a venue to get to from Northumberland and the Hamilton team are not in the habit of spending on petrol unnecessarily….

That they are going to the effort of getting him to the track at all is a sign they have a degree of expectation – and I reckon he’s a fair price….

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KOTMASK ran a decent race at Ascot last time out – despite getting hampered and losing a little momentum at the sixth fence – finishing 3rd of 10 and 2.5 lengths behind Martator….

That one reopposes tomorrow in the Lay & Wheeler Hurst Park Handicap Chase back at the same track (3.20) and is well-fancied to go in again….

…. despite conceding 5lb more weight to Kotmask than was the case on that last day….

Venetia Williams is putting 5lb claimer Ned Fox to use on Martator – theoretically negating that perceived advantage….

But Ned Fox is not Charlie Deutsch – especially around the chase course at Ascot – and that’s very much in Kotmask’s favour….

So too the fact that the ground looks set to soften – if rain forecasts can be believed (they can’t always!)….

Martator’s record says he wants a sound surface….

…. whilst Kotmask can handle things when the mud is flying – evidenced by wins at Sandown and Plumpton on soft ground last term….

He stuck on really well behind Martator that last afternoon at Ascot – on ground that would not have been optimal….

With that run under his belt – and conditions fair set to favour him more this time around – he ranks a fair bet at the general 7s….

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I’m backing Dan Skelton’s PUNTA DEL ESTE at the general 9s in the Betfair Racing Podcasts Handicap Hurdle at Haydock (1.15)….

He got beat on his return at Carlisle – running off a career-high rating of 133 having been put up 5lb for his victory at Ayr in April….

But I’m not too concerned about that defeat – the 5yo produced a performance that was close to a career best despite encountering ground that would be plenty quick enough for him….

He much prefers a surface with cut and with that first run under his belt – and if the forecast rain arrives – he is likely a serious player regardless of going up another pound in the rankings for that last defeat….

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That’s all for today….

I’ll be back next week….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd