Opening the shoulders....

Friday, 6th December 2024

Opening the shoulders….

In ATC today….

…. I swing the bat in all the big weekend handicaps….

The Becher Chase is the feature at Aintree tomorrow….

…. the off time is 2.07….

…. and my pick of the prices is MONTE IGUELDO at 33s & 28s….

I’m also on RICHMOND LAKE in the 1.32 at Aintree – he’s up at 7/2 ….

…. I’m on THE LORD MAID at 14s in the 3.17 at Aintree….

…. and I’m on TOP OF THE BILL at 10s in the 3.35 at Sandown….

That’s the summary….

…. you’ll find all my reasoning below – as per usual….

Oh…. and if you’re looking for the standout place terms on offer – you’ll find them in the Bet Box below…. 

Read on….

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In the 2.07 at Aintree….

I gave you the stats the other day – 17/24 Becher Chase winners were aged 9+….

…. and the last 61 horses to race aged 7 or younger produced just two winners….

….. but – like the rest of the market – I’m not that keen on the older horses in this year’s edition….

Chambard won it last year off a 5lb lower mark – but he’d had a prep run that he hasn’t had this time around….

Celebre d’Allen knows this track well and ran a cracker at Bangor last time – but he’s up 7lb to a career-high mark of 147 at nearly 13-years-old. He’s surely not still improving….

Percussion is a big price and could go well over fences he likes in a first-time visor – but he’s 6lb out of the handicap….

All things considered, the one I like at the prices is MONTE IGUELDO at the 33s & 28s –

…. I think it’s a big each-way price about a horse that ran a cracker behind Celebre d’Allen first-time-up at Bangor until he tired late on – running without his habitual tongue tie….

Like I say, the winner is up 7lb for that win – and I don’t expect him to improve again….

…. but Monte Igueldo is only 7, he’s very lightly raced, and he’s pretty-much entirely unexposed at staying trips….

There’s a strong possibility he will improve – for the trip – beyond his current station in the official rankings….

I just think he’s mispriced – and in the context of this race I’m more than happy to oppose what the stats say are the big pointers….

Get Becher Chase pointers….

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In the 1.32 at Aintree….

The first thing I did this morning was to look into an alternative to RICHMOND LAKE….

…. because I didn’t want to put him up at the 7/2….

In a 9-runner field there must be an alternative horse that I can back at a bigger price….

…. a horse more in keeping with my contrarian credentials….

But this is the problem sometimes when you set your stall out a certain way….

You fall under a kind of spell – which has you believing that you must always play that way – without break or deviation….

But sometimes it is what it is – Richmond Lake has a big chance….

…. and – in the absence of anything else in the field that compels me to act differently – I’m going to go with Donald McCain’s charge…..

He ran a cracker in the Grand Sefton at Aintree – despite not going into the race fully wound-up according to his trainer….

He was giving plenty of weight to the three horses that beat him home – with the  fifth horse home 8-lengths in arrears….

With four wins from his 11 goes over fences he’s surely a better chaser than he was a hurdler – yet he’s rated 6lb lower over fences on his current mark of 142…. 

He’s fallen rapidly from a career-high perch of 150 and I reckon he’s well-handicapped and race-fit contender heading into tomorrow….

Why wouldn’t I want to back him?

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In the 3.17 at Aintree….

Tom Lacey’s THE LORD MAID got beaten for the first time over hurdles on seasonal reappearance at Warwick….

It was her first time in a handicap and you could argue that she was on a stiff enough opening mark of 125 given her previous achievements….

…. but she didn’t run far short of that level….

…. she was the only one to put it up to the winner in the closing stages….

…. and – her being so lightly raced – you’d think she’ll grow into her mark as she goes….

She’s pretty much the most unexposed runner in tomorrow’s field….

…. and if she comes on for that outing to Warwick – which she’s entitled to – then she could be a big price at the 14s….

This horse will win you a few quid this term….

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In the 3.35 at Sandown….

TOP OF THE BILL was never going to shine on his comeback at Carlisle over a grossly inadequate 2m4f trip….

…. but he did come on a bundle for his seasonal debut in each of the last two terms….

…. and I expect him to produce a much better showing – and to resume his progress up the ranks – given a proper staying trip to run at for the first time tomorrow….

All his progress last term was made at 3-miles….

…. and the way he stayed on at that trip when winning at Exeter and at Wetherby on soft ground….

…. suggests he is the type to relish the extra yardage tomorrow….

I think he’s a nice price at the 9s – at a track he’s handled before and on ground that ought not give him bother….

He’s on a nice mark of 135, he’s open to loads of progress, and – like I say – draw a line through that seasonal debut….

…. because he’s plenty better than that….

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Now, just to recap….

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That’s all for today….

I’ll be back in your inbox next week….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd