On the profit trail at Haydock & Ascot....

Friday, 14th February 2025

On the profit trail at Haydock & Ascot….

In ATC today….

…. I swing the bat in all the big weekend handicaps….

The Grand National Trial is the feature at Haydock tomorrow….

…. the off time is 3.15….

…. and my pick of the prices is GALIA DES LITEAUX at 10s….

I’m also on WISEGUY in the 3.00 at Ascot – he’s up at 12s & 11s….

…. and I’m on SAMARRIVE at 18s & 16s in the 2.25 at Ascot….

That’s the summary….

…. you’ll find all my reasoning below – as per usual….

Oh…. and if you’re looking for the standout place terms on offer – you’ll find them in the Bet Box below…. 

Read on….

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I spend more time than I like poring over online weather maps trying to figure out if the rain will come or not….

There’s a good chance we’ll get precipitation over Haydock tomorrow morning and it will soften things up a tad….

…. hopefully enough to take sufficient sting out of the ground for Dan Skelton’s GALIA DES LITEAUX – who can be backed at 10s for the Grand National Trial (3.15)….

This mare is a proper stayer and is yet to win one of these big handicaps – but will surely change that at some point in the not-too-distant….

She went close in last season’s Classic Chase at Warwick and ran a big race in the Grand National – she was right on the premises at the second last before weakening out of it late….

This term she’s been aimed high again – showing up at Newbury for the Coral Gold Trophy and at Chepstow for the Welsh Grand National – producing reasonable performances in each race….

I think she’s very well-handicapped tomorrow….

…. she’s turn out on a mark of 140 – having dropped 5lb in the rankings since the start of the season….

…. and Tristan Durrell takes off another valuable 3lb….

It’s the first time Dan Skelton has gone down that road….

…. and I can’t help but notice that he’s doing it not when she’s at her high-point in the rankings – and maybe needs the help – but at what represents something of a low point in the trajectory of her rating….

I reckon there’s some expectation swilling around in that decision – and despite slight reservations about the ground – I’m happy to go in at the price….

You can easily see the respective cases about the horses at the head of the market for the Swinley at Ascot (3.00)….

Victtorino is in good form and loves the track….

…. Hasthing is really progressive and shows up looking for a third win on the bounce….

…. and Terresita won well last time – albeit over short at tomorrow’s track….

I do like Snipe and I considered him long and hard….

…. but he was doing all his best work late on at Doncaster last time…. he seems to like a proper staying trip…. and I just wonder if the short 3-miles at Ascot is ideal for him….

The one I’ve opted for at the prices is Nicky Henderson’s WISEGUY at the 12s & 11s….

He went badly wrong last term over fences after winning at Exeter – and was switched to hurdles where he was equally ineffective….

His trainer reported he’d had problems but they looked put to bed on his one appearance this season – when he won with something to spare at Newbury over 2m6f at the end of November….

…. looking every inch a horse that will appreciate the step up in trip tomorrow….

He nearly thew it away at the last fence – where he looked careless. That mistake allowed the runner-up to get past him….

…. but the swift manner in which he recovered position and put the race to bed suggests to me that he’s good value for the 6lb rise in the weights to 131….

I think he’s been kept back for the better underfoot conditions, his trainer knows how to get him right after a break – and this is a horse that could take another big step forward tomorrow….

…. plus I like the price about him – I think he’s a bit overlooked at the double-figure odds….

In the Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle at Ascot (2.25), I’m having a swing of the bat and backing SAMARRIVE at the general 18s & 16s….

He definitely needed his return run over fences at Ascot in November after a long spell on the sidelines – and he’s had a while off since….

But he needs decent ground and he turns out here over hurdles off a mark of 136 – which is a very sweet rating for him….

…. and he could run a much bigger race than his price suggests if Paul Nicholls has got him on-song….

It’s speculative – for sure. But that’s how I play. Faint heart never won fair lady – as they say….

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Now, just to recap….

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That’s all for today….

I’ll be back next week….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd