Wednesday, 2nd April 2025
My Grand National Winning Profile….
In ATC today….
…. I swing the bat on Day 1 at Aintree….
The Red Rum is the feature handicap tomorrow….
…. the off time is 4.40….
…. and my pick of the prices is RATH GAUL HILL at 12s & 11s….
I’m also on EMBASSY GARDENS in the G1 Bowl at 2.55 – he’s up at 10s ….
That’s the summary….
…. you’ll find all my reasoning below – as per usual….
Oh…. and if you’re looking for the standout place terms on offer – you’ll find them in the Bet Box below….
Read on….
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Gavin Cromwell will no doubt be the first port of call for many punters in the big handicaps right now….
…. and his My Mate Mozzie will take the beating in tomorrow’s Red Rum at Aintree (4.40)….
But he’s been well-found by the market, and I prefer to back Sam Drinkwater’s RATH GAUL HILL at the general 11s – there’s still a bit of 12s about….
Yes, he’s 3lb out of the handicap – which is never ideal….
…. and – yes – he made hard work of it in the closing stages last time out at Newbury….
…. but that was his first run for 315 days and he’s entitled to strip fitter for the outing tomorrow….
Looking at the wider picture with him – he’s won his last three and is still very much progressing….
…. and there’s almost certainly more to come….
Say what you want about the Newbury performance….
…. but nobody can deny that he got his head down and battled when required….
…. and the third horse home has franked the form since….
He’s wrong at the weights tomorrow but only carries 10-2….
They could have used a claimer but instead they’ve stuck with Sam Twiston-Davies – who was on him for the first time that last day….
…. and I reckon this race has been the target for a while….
He will need to improve again – for sure….
…. but the way he travelled deep into the race at Newbury it’s hard to believe that he’s not going to prove a good bit better than tomorrow’s effective mark of 126….
I’m assuming that Paul Townend was given the choice of what to ride for Willie Mullins in the Bowl (2.55)….
He’s opted for EMBASSY GARDENS over the much-touted Gaelic Warrior – and he’s the bet for me at the general 10s….
He was sent to last season’s National Hunt Chase at the Festival on the assumption that he was a Grand National horse in the making….
…. but Mullins has changed his mind in the meantime and now sees the 9yo as a horse that will respond best to a positive ride over 3-miles….
He hasn’t really done it yet at the top-level….
…. but he did give Monty’s Star a 5-length beating at Tramore in January….
…. and he was taken out of the Gold Cup at Cheltenham with – I think – this race in mind as his target….
The yard shows no sign of letting up with 8 winners from its last dozen runners….
…. and I just think this one is interesting – at a price – with Townend up….
He’s still very lightly raced and if there’s a key to this horse at the top level – Mullins is the man to turn it….
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Now, just to recap….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets…. In the 4.40 @ Aintree….
e/w terms = Sky Bet pay 5 places. Its 4 places generally…. In the 2.55 @ Aintree….
e/w terms = Sky Bet pay 4 places. Its 3 places generally…. Advised prices are correct at the point of publication – but subject to fluctuation. Shop around – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
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That’s all for today….
I’ll be back tomorrow with my picks for Day 2 at Aintree….
Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….
Stay tuned….
