Picks for Saturday at Ayr & Newbury....

Friday, 11th April 2025

Picks for Saturday at Ayr & Newbury….

Picks for Friday at Ayr….

In ATC today….

…. I swing the bat in all the big weekend handicaps….

The Scottish Grand National is the feature handicap at Ayr tomorrow….

…. the off time is 3.35….

…. and my pick of the prices is SPANISH HARLEM at 16s….

I’m also on UNDER CONTROL in the 2.15 at Ayr – she’s up at 16s ….

…. I’m on ARMED AND FABULOUS at 13/2 in the 2.55 at Ayr….

…. and I’m on URBAN LION at 10s in the 3.12 at Newbury….

That’s the summary….

…. you’ll find all my reasoning below – as per usual….

Oh…. and if you’re looking for the standout place terms on offer – you’ll find them in the Bet Box below…. 

Read on….

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Dan Skelton must be shaking his fist at the sky….

For months he looked nailed-on to win his first Trainers Championship….

Now – he’s looking at having to swallow the same bitter pill as last year….

…. with the juggernaut that is Willie Mullins breathing down his neck once again….

…. and the master Irish trainer odds-on to snatch the honours – ripping Skelton’s heart out in the process (again) – after hoovering up big money at Cheltenham and Aintree….

Skelton has plenty of horses – and he’ll fight to the end….

…. but he doesn’t have the depth in his battalions that old man Mullins possesses….

In Saturday’s Scottish Grand National at Ayr (3.35)….

…. the feature handicap of the day – with a prize fund worth £200k….

…. the Skelton team can field Sail Away & Snipe (the outright rag)….

…. whilst Mullins can throw half-a-dozen darts at the board….

…. last year’s returning winner among them….

…. along with three entirely unexposed chasers – two off them running off an official mark for the first time – who could turn out to be absolutely anything….

He’s got four of the top six in the betting (I’m writing this on Thursday night)….

…. and it will come as no surprise whatsoever if he pockets the lion’s share of the moolah up for grabs on Saturday afternoon….

Macdermott is back down to 136 – a pound below the mark he won the race from last term….

…. but he’s going to have to bounce back big time from a sequence of poor performances – and on ground livelier than what he got last year….

Olympic Man looks the one laid out for the job this time around – under Patrick Mullins….

…. but he’s been found and – at the prices – I can’t resist having a swing at SPANISH HARLEM – who I suspect will outrun the general 16s….

Mullins ran six in last year’s edition of the race and Spanish Harlem was Paul Townend’s pick – the pair finished sixth….

That was off a mark of 140 and the 7yo is 4lb better off this time around. I also think he’ll appreciate the better ground – I reckon connections anticipated better ground last year and it didn’t work out for them….

He’s probably not delivered what was hoped for from him….

…. but last time was an encouraging step in the right direction….

…. they’ve put cheekpieces on him….

…. and if they thought he was well-handicapped for this last year on 140 – which they did – then he’s surely weighted to get competitive on Saturday if he puts it all together….

That’s a big if, of course – but I reckon they’re back again with him because they think this race suits….

…. and that they’ll have him ready for a big go at it….

Any improvement on last year is going to see him run well….

Earlier on the card in the Scottish Champion Hurdle (2.15), I’m backing UNDER CONTROL at the general 16s….

I’ve banged on about this mare of Nicky Henderson’s previously – most notably before the Greatwood in November when she didn’t really show up….

Prior to that in 2023 she’d beaten Iberico Lord in the Novices' Championship Final Handicap Hurdle at Sandown – giving him 8lb….

…. classy form when you consider he went on to be rated as high as 144 over timber – having won a Greatwood & a Betfair Hurdle….

Under Control has been restricted to just four races since then – and has clearly had problems….

…. but one of those races was the Galway Hurdle last August….

…. and the fact that she was sent on that assignment at all suggests connections thought she was well-handicapped on 137….

She’s down to 134 now and is very sweetly weighted if Henderson and his crew have got her back at it for a first-time up target….

I’m not feeling the bravado in the UK Greentech Glasgow Seafield Trophy Mares' Handicap Hurdle (2.55)….

…. and the Mullins-trained ARMED AND FABULOUS is the pick at 13/2….

It was only a maiden she won at Newcastle back in February….

…. but she did it well on the back of a 452-day absence….

…. and the second horse franked the form with a win next time out….

This is a stiffer task….

…. but there’s no way she was entirely straight last time….

…. and the step-up in trip – straight from 2m to 3m – suggests we could well see a significant improvement tomorrow….

…. one which will see her leave a mark of 117 in the dust….

In the Spring Mile at Newbury (3.12)….

…. an improving 4yo….

…. berthed at the low-end of the draw….

…. has been a recipe for success in the most recent editions….

…. and Jack Channon’s URBAN LION at 10s fits the bill this time around….

The yard won the race last year with Metal Merchant – who goes again tomorrow off a 6lb higher mark….

…. and Urban Lion can repeat the trick….

He was last seen at Chelmsford on the AW in February when landing his second success under rules – producing a career best in the process….

…. and he can kick on from a revised mark of 89….

There’s a suspicion in some quarters that he’s an AW horse….

…. but it’s way too soon to write him off on turf….

He’s a youngster on the improve….

…. and is likely ahead of the handicapper….

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Now, just to recap….

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That’s all for today….

I’ll be back next week….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd