Saturday, 16th January 2016
Good evening, contrarians,
On the menu today….
It feels a little unusual to be writing to you on a Saturday evening. I think it’s a first.
But given that I couldn’t be sure what would be running in tomorrow’s Leopardstown Handicap Chase until earlier today, I felt it was better to hold off than start guessing at it on Friday afternoon.
And I’m glad I did hold off. Just 12 horses were confirmed as runners at the overnight stage – not as many previous years.
They will go post on ground described as soft to heavy – a pretty typical description for Ireland at this time of year. The off-time is 3.00.
Killer Crow and Fine Rightly are the two most prominent in the betting but the one that interests me most at the prices is ALT Moore’s FEVER PITCH at 12s generally.
Last time out the 10yo was only beaten 1.5 lengths by Fine Rightly but trades at twice the price for tomorrow’s race.
Moore has a decent record of getting his horses ready for a proper tilt at this race. His last 23 participants have produced 2 wins and 5 places. Moore has done particularly well with representatives going into the race off light weights….
Fever Pitch is slated to carry bottom-weight of 9-10 tomorrow and will benefit further from having a 5lb claimer in the saddle.
He was 6th in the race last year having tried to make all and was only headed just before the last fence. He’s on the same mark and I expect another bold bid this time round at an each-way price.
The Contrarian Bet Box….
To recap where the value is in tomorrow’s Leopardstown Handicap Chase….
That is my take on tomorrow’s target races. You will no doubt have your own ideas – and that’s exactly as it should be. You can watch the action unfold live on ATR.
That’s all from me for today. Stay tuned for more contrarian big-race insight & analysis next week.
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