Wednesday, 6th July 2016
Good afternoon, contrarians,
On the menu today….
Only one race on tomorrow afternoon’s card at Newmarket appeals to me as a betting medium and that’s the big handicap over the 6f trip – the Betfred Mobile Heritage Handicap (3.45)….
I want to be with SHOW STEALER for this one.
The best price you can get about her this afternoon is 9s. That’s a little shorter than I’d ordinarily be looking for in a race of this nature. But I really rate this horse, I think she’s got a big race in her and I reckon the 9s is just about fair enough.
Regular readers might recall that I wanted to back Show Stealer for the 888 Charity Sprint at York in June. I put her up for that race in ATC Extra but she was pulled out on account of the ground – it had gone too soft for her.
She not been seen since. Rae Guest has clearly been keeping her back for the right target and the right conditions – and tomorrow has panned out nicely. I think she can go well off a mark of 92.
The ground has certainly come right for her – she thrives on a quick surface….
She’s got a bit of form on the track – finishing 3rd in a 20-runner handicap last August over 6f. So we know she’ll handle the rising finish tomorrow….
And she is very handily drawn in stall 15. Eight of the last 9 winners were berthed in the top half of the draw. She’s got every chance if things fall right.
Last season’s edition of the race was won by Charlie Hills’s Magical Memory – on route to better things. And I think Charlie Hills can have another big day with A MOMENTOFMADNESS which can be backed this afternoon at prices as big as 20s with Betfair Sportsbook and 16s generally.
This son of Elnadim is on an upward curve and has improved for every appearance on turf this term – winning the last two at Windsor and Salisbury. The application of a hood has certainly helped and he has that headgear on again tomorrow.
But it is the step back up to 6f that catches my eye. His last two performances were produced over the minimum trip and it took him a while to really get rolling. The extra furlong and the rising ground at the finish tomorrow should be right up his street.
Daryl Holland rode the horse at Kempton on the all-weather in March. When he got off he described the horse as ‘very, very quick’ and said the 3yo was the quickest he’d sat on in a while.
Okay Holland isn’t in the Premier League these days. He doesn’t get too many rides on the best horses. But he’s no fool either. He’s been around long enough to know what real speed is and it is clear that this horse has some.
Back up to 6f on ground that suits perfectly, I really like the price. I think it’s bigger than it should be.
The horse is drawn 6 but it is often a mistake to be a crank about the draw. I’m on one on each side of the field and I’m happy enough with that.
The Contrarian Bet Box….
To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow….
In the Betfred Mobile Heritage Handicap (3.45 Newmarket)....
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow afternoon with my picks on the Friday card.