8th July 2016
Good afternoon, friends,
In today’s ATC Extra bulletin….
This weekend we’re targeting the prices in the ToteScoop6 Heritage Handicap over the fast 5f at Ascot (2.45). But first a little food for thought for those of you who like the idea of becoming a professional gambler....
I’ve met no end of people who want to become profressional gamblers and bet for a living….
It’s a seductive idea. No job, no getting stuck in traffic twice a day, no commute and no clipboard merchant standing over you and cracking the whip from 8.30 until 5.00.
Plus you can work in your pyjamas and have as many tea and toast breaks as you like – with Talksport and Sky Sports News humming away in the background.
A great dream – but it’s not easy to make it a reality in Britain.
If you’re not financially secure with a big bank behind you, you’re going to find it a hair-raising ride. You’re going to be living life on the edge of your seat.
It might sound exciting – but the reality can be pretty grim and takes its toll. A professional gambler has no job security and very little in way of a safety net when things go wrong….
But news reaches us this week that it might be easier to live that particular dream outside Britain.
Against the Crowd readers come from far and wide. Earlier this week I heard from one toiling away on a mushroom farm (you can’t make these things up) in Ethiopia. GR got in touch to let me know he’d been on last weekend’s winners:
‘Sweet Saturday that was! Over here, the day’s profits covered my month’s rent and a well-deserved bottle of local honeywine. Sweet day all the way! I drank an extra couple of glasses for you!’
Now I’ve never been on a night out in Addis Ababa. I imagine it’s a bit hairier than a night out in Leamington Spa and a bit gentler on the system than a night out in Stoke-on-Trent. But I must admit I like the idea of the returns from small-stakes bets paying my rent for the month….
Have we accidentally stumbled onto the winning formula of the future for the man-on-the-street punter who wants to have a crack at making it pay as a professional gambler….
I’ve heard worse and wackier ideas – though right at this moment I really can’t remember when or where….
There is no shortage of airline operators flying to Ethiopia from various airports in Britain. If you decide to quit the job, pack the old rucksack and take the plunge, be sure to let us know how you get on. As always, we’ll be delighted to hear from you here at Against the Crowd….
Get all my bets for this exciting weekend….
It’s a massive day of racing tomorrow with some cracking betting heats at Newmarket and York. Over on my paid Against the Crowd service this afternoon….
If you’re looking for a few more bets for tomorrow afternoon, you can access those picks free of charge right now by taking a FREE test-drive of my Against the Crowd service….
Before I look at the prices the bookies are offering on a race, I like to price the contest up myself (or at least get the runners into the order I think they should be in the market) based on a series of tests, measures and criterion that I apply to each horse at the outset of my analysis.
It’s quick and dirty but it enables me to form my own view of where a horse should be in the betting – before I take a look at where it actually is in the betting.
It can be a swift indicator of potential value (or that I have got something bent out of shape in my analysis). Or it can confirm that the prices are somewhere close to right.
It’s that latter way with the prices for tomorrow’s contest. William Hill were up first with their market – as so often they are of late – and on my reckoning the bods on their racing desk have got it about right. Most of the right horses – on my assessments – are towards the top of the market.
One that does appeal at the prices is the top-weight – MALJAA at 14s.
After a more-than-acceptable seasonal debut at Chester, Roger Varian’s charge disappointed favourite backers next time out at Espom in the Dash on Derby Day.
It wasn’t that he just got beaten at a short price. It was more that he didn’t really show up and finished stone last of the 17 runners.
Something was clearly amiss that afternoon. He was never going and I can draw a line through that bit of form.
Based on his exploits of last season – when blinkers markedly improved him – he isn’t out of this on a mark of 106 and at the price he is backable each-way.
Everything suits tomorrow afternoon: he likes a straight, he gets on well with Dane O’Neill, the headgear is on, the ground suits and he is certainly not out-classed.
If he bounces back from Epsom then he can go very well at a nice price.
The other one I want to play at the prices is UNION ROSE at 12s.
His mind wasn’t always on the job last term – but being relieved of the crown jewels during the close-season might very well change that and on his reappearance last weekend at Sandown he showed sufficient to suggest it might indeed be the case.
That was a good effort off a 251 day break and he is should come on for it tomorrow afternoon.
Connections have always maintained that this horse will be at his best on genuine fast ground – he gets that tomorrow – and there’s every reason to believe he will be a better horse this year than last. If that’s the case then he will be leaving his current mark of 97 behind.
Despite a record of inconsistency, he has run well before off a quick turnaround. So the fact he’s only raced a week ago can be viewed as a positive rather than a negative.
The ATC Extra bet recap….
Remember, we don’t have to be betting in hundreds to make the game worthwhile or fun. A spend of a few quid is plenty to be going on with….
Only William Hill are up with prices as I got to press. If you’ve got the time to watch the prices of other firms go up on Oddschecker, you might get a better price….
Note: The bookies will be up with place terms of 1/4 1-2-3-4 for this one. If you like backing them each-way then don’t let me put you off.
That’s all from me this week. Enjoy your weekend.
In recent times William Hill have established themselves as the firm most likely to go up first with prices for the big handicaps we target. If you want the best of the value, you might want to consider adding a William Hill account to your portfolio of accounts. Get the best of the Early Bird prices….