The pick of the prices at Newmarket tomorrow....

Last Updated: 15.07.2016

15th July 2016

Good afternoon, friends,

In today’s ATC Extra bulletin….

  • Want to be a professional gambler? Consider Ethiopia….
  • Two picks for tomorrow’s betting heats at Newbury….
  • The pick of the prices in the Nexus Structure Handicap (3.15)….

Want to be a professional gambler? Consider Ethiopia….

This weekend we’re targeting the prices in the Nexus Structure Handicap over 8f at Newmarket (3.15). But first a little food for thought for those of you who like the idea of becoming a professional gambler....

I’ve met no end of people who want to become professional gamblers and bet for a living….

It’s a seductive idea. No job, no getting stuck in traffic twice a day, no commute and no clipboard merchant standing over you and cracking the whip from 8.30 until 5.00.

Plus you can work in your pyjamas and have as many tea and toast breaks as you like – with Talksport and Sky Sports News humming away in the background.

A great dream – but it’s not easy to make it a reality in Britain.

If you’re not financially secure with a big bank behind you, you’re going to find it a hair-raising ride. You’re going to be living life on the edge of your seat.

It might sound exciting – but the reality can be pretty grim and takes its toll. A professional gambler has no job security and very little in way of a safety net when things go wrong….

But news reached us last week that it might be easier to live that particular dream outside Britain.

Against the Crowd readers come from far and wide. Earlier this week I heard from one toiling away on a mushroom farm (you can’t make these things up) in Ethiopia. GR got in touch to let me know he’d been on the winners we had a fortnight back:

  • Tawdeea – winner of the Old Newton Cup and advised in this column at 12s
  • Snoano – placed in the same race and advised at 14s
  • Hawkbill – who won the Eclipse having been advised on my paid ATC service at 8s

‘Sweet Saturday that was! Over here, the day’s profits covered my month’s rent and a well-deserved bottle of local honeywine. Sweet day all the way! I drank an extra couple of glasses for you!’

Now I’ve never been on a night out in Addis Ababa. I imagine it’s a bit hairier than a night out in Leamington Spa and a bit gentler on the system than a night out in Stoke-on-Trent. But I must admit I like the idea of the returns from small-stakes bets paying my rent for the month….

Have we accidentally stumbled onto the winning formula of the future for the man-on-the-street punter who wants to have a crack at making it pay as a professional gambler?

  • Step 1: Relocate to Ethiopia
  • Step 2: Bet with British bookmakers in pound sterling
  • Step 3: Pay living expenses in the Ethiopian Birr
  • Step 4: Live like a King

I’ve heard worse and wackier ideas – though right at this moment I really can’t remember when or where….

There is no shortage of airline operators flying to Ethiopia from various airports in Britain. If you decide to quit the job, pack the old rucksack and take the plunge, be sure to let us know how you get on. As always, we’ll be delighted to hear from you here at Against the Crowd….

Two picks for tomorrow’s betting heats at Newbury….

Over on my paid Against the Crowd service this afternoon I’m shooting at the prices in tomorrow’s two big betting heats at Newbury….

  • The Weatherbys Super Sprint is a valuable contest for juveniles over the fast 5f….
  • The weights depend on the money a horse was bought for and wins it already has in the book. I’m siding with a felt-footed improver at a double-figure price….
  • In the G3 Hackwood Stakes I’m going for an underrated horse that’s in-form and can improve again for the fast ground….

If you’re looking for a couple more bets for tomorrow afternoon you can access those picks free of charge right now by taking a FREE test-drive of my Against the Crowd service….

Access tomorrow’s Newbury picks right here….

The pick of the prices in the Nexus Structure Handicap….

William Hill are the only firm up with prices for this race at the moment.

I don’t expect the others to follow until later this afternoon – with Skybet likely to be the next up with prices.

But when the rest do go up I reckon they’ll do the same thing as William Hill. They’ll position themselves at some point between 14s to 20s about DUTCH UNCLE – and I reckon that’s the wrong price.

I get why the Hills traders have gone that way. They’re looking at the horse’s last two runs – which don’t make for great reading on paper.

Two runs back he was dropped back to 8f at Epsom. There was clearly some anticipation that the shorter trip would suit because he was sent off the favourite. In the event he got well-beaten. But there were legitimate excuses. The track didn’t suit. He didn’t like running downhill.

Next time out he went to Ripon where he got well-beaten again. But there were mitigating factors that day too. If it could have gone wrong, it did. The rain-softened ground didn’t suit, he never got an inch of cover and to top it all he got struck into. It’s a race you can draw a line through.

He steps back to 8f again tomorrow under Tom Marquand and I reckon he’ll be better than the layers think. He’s got plenty of speed, the rising finish on the July course will play to his stamina, he gets his ground and I believe the horse will put in a showing well in advance of the on-paper level produced in his last two performances.

He’s better than that but the 16s with William Hill doesn’t reflect that fact. I’ll be taking advantage and backing the Ed-Dunlop-trained runner each-way.

The ATC Extra bet recap….

Remember, we don’t have to be betting in hundreds to make the game worthwhile or fun. A spend of a few quid is plenty to be going on with….

Note: The standard place terms for a 13-runner handicap are ¼ 1-2-3. I don’t anticipate any firm going up with Enhanced Place Terms.

That’s all from me this week. Enjoy your weekend.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd Extra