29th July 2016
Good afternoon, friends,
In today’s ATC Extra bulletin….
This weekend we target the Stewards’ Sprint Stakes at Goodwood (2.00) – the consolation race for horses that didn’t get into the Stewards’ Cup. But first a few words on the way we play the game at ATC….
When you’re a picker of horses – and you go public with your opinions as I do – you have to have a thick skin because you’re going to take some real stick when you get it wrong.
Over the years I’ve had some real dog’s abuse from readers and punters who’ve put their money down on one or more of my selections and walked away from the scenario a few quid poorer.
If you haven’t got a durable hide when you start out in this game, you pretty quickly grow one – believe me. And when you play the game the contrarian way – as I do on my ATC service – the verbals are of the agricultural variety and the insults get particularly spicy.
Playing in the most competitive races on the programme – big-field handicaps – and operating at the bigger price points, losers (and plenty of them) are an inevitable part of the game. I don’t apologize for it. That’s the way of it.
I don’t expect to back a winner every week or even every other week. My game is about picking live contenders at big prices. I won’t be operating at a high strike-rate. I’m just looking for a few winners at big prices here and there – dotted across the season.
Hopefully I’ll get enough of those winners at big enough prices to get my nose in front over the long-term. That’s the aim.
But my game is not for everyone. I know that. Some punters don’t have the patience or the temperament to play the game the way I do. For whatever reason….
Some punters need the reassurance of frequent winners – whatever the price. I get that. But punting fancied horses at short prices (the ones that win most frequently) is not what I’m about. That game doesn’t pay in the long-term.
Some other punters think there is some tipster out there who is going to pick them winners week on week – one who makes losers a thing of the past. And when you turn out not to be that guy, they can take it real personal.
I always tell these readers to let me know when they track this mythical guy down – so that I can back his selections too. Nobody has yet come back with a name – and it’s been 10 years in some cases.
I will never change the way I play the big races. The focus will remain on finding value bets – horses I consider live contenders that are trading at prices that underestimate their true chances of winning (in my humble opinion).
Losers will remain par for the course. Losing days, losing weekends, loss-making meetings and hard-to-take barren spells when I can’t find a winner for love nor money – you can expect to experience it all.
But I back myself to get it right often enough at the right kind of prices to make up for the bad times.
The way I play the big races, it only takes a couple of winners to cancel out a long run of losses and to get back in front. My methods do find the right horses. The good times always come along. Patience is eventually rewarded….
Over on my paid ATC service we’ve had a good time at Glorious Goodwood this week. Up to the end of racing on Thursday we’ve had three bets and two winners – Boom The Groom on day 1 advised each-way at 16s & Star Rider on day 2 advised each-way at 14s….
Two against the field in the Stewards’ Cup….
Over on my paid Against the Crowd service this afternoon we’re targeting additional bets at Goodwood tomorrow….
If you’re looking for a couple more bets for tomorrow afternoon you can access those picks free of charge right now by taking a FREE test-drive of my Against the Crowd service….
Jamie Osborne’s MISTERIOSO at 16s with William Hill is the first one that interests me in tomorrow’s Stewards’ Sprint Stakes at Goodwood (2.00).
He’s improved for a move from Richard Hannon’s yard and he won in fine style at Ascot earlier this month – earning a hike up the ratings to a mark of 89.
Next time out at Chelmsford on the sand he was disappointing on the face of it but the pace wasn’t on that day.
This 4yo likes to come late off a rattling good gallop – just as he did at Ascot – so tomorrow’s race at Goodwood should suit him down to the ground. The in-form James Doyle partners.
The other one I’m interested in at 20s with Skybet is Osborne’s second runner SHAMSHON.
He’s another recent arrival from the Hannon yard and you can expect him to be arriving at the business end of things late on under hold-up specialist Jamie Spencer.
Spencer has struck up a promising looking relationship with the horse since his arrival in Osborne’s yard – winning on him at Chelmsford and running with credit at Ascot last week. That was over 5f and he was still running strongly at the end. The step back up to 6f can see him to better effect tomorrow.
The ATC Extra bet recap….
Remember, we don’t have to be betting in hundreds to make the game worthwhile or fun. A spend of a few quid is plenty to be going on with….
Note: Plenty of bookies will be going up with Enhanced Place Terms of 1/4 1-2-3-4-5. If you’re going in each-way – which I wouldn’t put you off doing – it might pay to wait for the firms to go up with those deals.
That’s all from me this week. Enjoy your weekend.