4th November 2016
Good afternoon, friends,
In today’s ATC Extra bulletin….
Our target this weekend is the Jack Berry House Handicap up at Doncaster (1.50)….
The race is run over the straight 7f trip and a field of 19 runners are set to go to post on ground currently described as good to firm.
Most years this race is run on ground with at least some cut. For the last 3 years the ground has been heavy. But the dry weather produces a different variable this time round. The ground is currently described as good to firm.
There are some light showers forecast over Doncaster between now and the off – but, if the meteorologists have called it right – I think we can rely on the ground being on the faster side.
God Willing is one I looked at closely. Jamie Spencer takes the ride for Declan Carroll – one of just two he takes at the track tomorrow and where he enjoyed particular success last term – but the 5yo's record of just 2 wins from 27 runs in total tells its own story and I prefer to look elsewhere.
I was interested to see how the firms priced-up George Bowen. He’s gone well the last two times – but encountered trouble in running – and is well treated on the pick of his form.
He's stepping up to 7f again but is yet to prove he stays the trip. That's the negative. He does get his ground though and I would have been a player had the price been right. As it is the layers are onto him and he's too short for me.
We’ll get to my selections in a moment. First a word on my other picks for tomorrow afternoon….
Pick up extra bets at Doncaster & Wincanton….
Over on my paid Against the Crowd service this afternoon I’m targeting a bet on the flat at Doncaster and another over the jumps down at Wincanton….
If you’re looking for a couple more bets for tomorrow afternoon you can access those picks free of charge right now by taking a FREE test-drive of my Against the Crowd service….
The first one I like in tomorrow’s Jack Berry House Handicap (Doncaster 1.50) is BOY IN THE BAR at 12s.
Ian Williams’s 5yo has put together a string of solid efforts since the end of August. He's gone up 12lbs in the process and couldn't quite overcome the rise in his last two runs – whilst running with plenty of credit.
But this horse relishes fast ground – he won two on a genuine fast surface in August and September – and tomorrow’s unseasonable quick ground could be just the thing that will enable to go on again. He can certainly figure.
The handicapper dropped him a pound after his last run and the booking of Josephine Gordon entitles him to another 3lb off – all of which can only assist his cause.
The price is certainly nice enough for a horse holding his form late-season.
The other one I like is Kevin Ryan’s MOUNT TAHAN at 18s. He’s another one enjoying a decent run of form at the back end of the campaign.
He saw plenty of money last time out at Ayr – but got beaten into 5th on the day and let backers down. That said he had excuses. He was struck into during the race – an occurrence that would have inconvenienced him and hindered his progress.
I think it’s a performance that can’t be taken at face value and he is worth another go. He can bounce back tomorrow at a much healthier price.
I’ll be backing both horses each-way. Only Skybet & William Hill are up with prices as I send this to my publisher. I wouldn’t be surprised if you can get some 14s about Boy In The Bar & some 20s about Mount Tahan by the time you read this….
The ATC Extra bet recap….
Remember, we don’t have to be betting in hundreds to make the game worthwhile or fun. A spend of a few quid is plenty to be going on with….
Note: Standard place terms are 1/4 1-2-3-4. I’ll be going in each-way.
That’s all from me this week. Enjoy your weekend.