Monday, 15th August 2022
There’s high-quality action to look forward to at York this week – whatever the weather does….
…. a clash between Baaeed and Mishriff in the G1 International Stakes….
…. Stradivarius going up against Trueshan in search of his fourth Lonsdale Cup….
…. and rocket-fueled 2yo filly The Platinum Queen – supplemented at a cost of £40k (wiping out her career earnings to date) – aims to put up it up to her elders in the Nunthorpe….
That’s great action for any racing fan….
But – from a purely betting perspective – the big handicaps are where it’s at for me Wednesday to Friday this week….
The £500k Ebor is the feature race for handicap fans on Saturday….
But before that there’s an absolute stack of high-quality big-field handicap action to shoot at before then….
…. the Sky Bet & Symphony, the Stayers’ Handicap, the Clipper Logistics, the Melrose…. and plenty more….
I’ll be targeting multiple races each day – Wednesday to Saturday – digging out dark horses that can run bigger and better races than their prices suggest….
The intention – as always – is to carve out a profit across the four days. You can get in on the action here….
But ahead of the meeting I want to share something with you….
…. details of a trainer who’s proven to be a handicap profit center in top York handicaps across the last few years….
Since the start of the 2016 season, nobody has done as much with so little in the C2 handicaps run at York (not just those run at the Ebor meeting) as Michael Dods....
His figures tell the story more eloquently than I can put into words….
His last 36 qualifying runners produced 14 wins and 22 additional places at a total place strike rate of 48%....
Backing all the qualifiers on the nose would have delivered a betting profit of 41 points – and that’s at SP….
No doubt better prices were available early-doors and on the exchanges....
If we look specifically at C2 handicap run at the Ebor meeting over the last 13-years – as far back as my immediate data allows – the numbers paint another encouraging picture….
Eight winners and nine placers from 32 runners equates to a total place strike rate of 53.1% – a big number in any context….
Three winners were sent off at 14s – and eight of the placers were returned at double-figure prices….
Betting profits amount to 48 points if all runners were backed to win at SPs. And with placers going in at all prices from 12s to 33s there have been abundant each-way profits on offer too….
Of course, stats are just stats and what happened in the past is no guarantee that it will happen again....
But the record reveals a performance consistent enough to suggest Dods will send out more competitive runners in the handicaps set to be run at the meeting this week – runners that can out-perform big prices....
His runners certainly merit the once-over even if you don’t want to take the plunge and bet them blind....
I’m looking forward to the action at York this week. I’m looking forward to the big clashes I mentioned earlier….
But from a betting perspective my focus will be on the big-field handicaps….
I’ll be doing my usual and taking on the market fancies – targeting win and place money with dark horses up at prices that underestimate their true chances….
The aim – as always – is to put in the graft and dig out a profit. You can join me here….
You get full access to the unabridged ATC service – Wednesday through Saturday this week….
---- You get my analysis and selections for all the big handicaps….
---- If I back any horses in the Pattern races – I’ll pass those bets on too….
---- Plus – over the next month – you get all my observations, insights, analysis, and horses to follow….
---- And all my dark horse selections in the handicap races I target for betting purposes across the next 4-weeks – and there are plenty of good target races coming up on the schedule….
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That’s all for today. Meanwhile….
…. get in touch direct at: firstname.lastname@example.org
P.S. This is one of the best betting weeks of the year for big-field handicap fans – with multiple big-field races to target across a broad range of trips. Get my dark horse selections here….