Friday, 24th September 2021
You won’t see many bigger fields than the one for tomorrow’s Cambridgeshire – 35 line up….
It’s a proper conundrum – a complex handicap puzzle for punters to wrestle with. It’s not easy to solve – but what fun would it be otherwise?
You get immediate access to my race selections (in the ATC archive) when you trial my ATC service. Do that here….
If you’re figuring out your own Cambridgeshire bets – Stat Navigation can help. The numbers can point you in the direction of the winner….
That’s the theory. Let’s see how it works out in practice….
Figuring out which of the 35 will win or run well is as difficult or as straightforward as you want to make it….
Some punters spend 72 hours assessing the form of every runner in intricate detail. Other punters throw a dart….
Today, we’re taking a middle path and going through a process of elimination based on facts and stats thrown up by historic editions of the race….
First off, the last 5 editions of the race illustrate that high-numbered stalls have dominated. The winners were drawn 28/31, 29/34, 21/33, 29/30 & 25/27….
Of the 20 horses that hit the frame – 13 were drawn in stall 16+. Of those 11 were drawn in stall 20+. Just 3 horses placed from single-figure stalls. The low numbers have it all to do to overcome recent track trends. The higher drawn horses have the edge….
Stalls 20+ is a good place to be. I’m being bold and drawing a line through those drawn lower. We lose Breath Caught, Montather, You’re Hired, Zozimus, Jean Baptiste, Good Birthday, Indeed, Bell Rock, Hartswood, Chichester, Anythingtoday, Marie’s Diamond, Raise You, Fastnet Crown, Irish Admiral, Dance Jupiter, Astro King, Royal Marine & Ametist. In one fell swoop, we’re down to 16….
Next – I’m scrubbing the older horses. None of the last 20 winners were older than 6 and the last one of that age was back in 2009. Horses aged 3 to 5 are the percentage play….
Here we lose Bedouin’s Story, Plantadream, Power Of Darkness, Data Protection & Trais Fluors. We’re down to 11….
Next – I’m drawing a line through horses that haven’t been seen on the track since before the start of August. 13 of the last 14 winners had raced within that time-period. Here we lose Long Tradition. We’re down to 10….
Next – I rarely back the really fancied horses – those at single figure prices. And I certainly won’t be doing it in a 35-runner race. Astro King & Chichester are already scrubbed. Now we lose Uncle Bryn & Magical Morning. We’re down to 8….
Next – just one horse in the last 20-years won carrying more than 9-05. Majestic Dawn is up against it trying to win back-to-back editions and I’m scrubbing him….
We’re down to a reasonable shortlist of 7 – comprising Lucander (25s), Spirit Dancer (20s), Fantastic Fox (16s), Ropey Guest (50s), Anmaat (10s), Naval Commander (80s) & Epic Endeavour (80s)….
I wonder if the ground has gone against Spirit Dancer – he’s never run on good to firm ground. And maybe Lucander would like a bit less bounce….
Naval Commander and Epic Endeavour haven’t done enough coming into the race for me. And I don’t like how keen Fantastic Fox has been in his last couple of races – replication of that quirk would go against him tomorrow….
That leaves us with Anmaat and Ropey Guest. I wouldn’t put you off the former but with the bookies paying out on as many as 8 places, Ropey Guest is an interesting each-way option at 50s….
He broke his duck on the turf at the 21st attempt at Yarmouth last time – where he kept on well in the closing stages. Connections have been really keen to get him into this race for some time and the 9f trip might just be his thing….
Can it really be so easy to pick a winner/placer? Can the stats and the numbers really cut through all the complexities of figuring out a big-field handicap?
Maybe. Maybe not. We’ll know something more tomorrow….
But – if you believe in the idea that what has happened most frequently before is most likely to be the thing that happens again – Ropey Guest ticks a few key boxes….
Let me know if you’re jumping on him. You can contact me direct at: firstname.lastname@example.org
At this point in proceedings I should come out and let everybody know that Ropey Guest isn’t one of my main bets – but I have had a couple of quid on him….
It’s fun – and informative – to go through these exercises. Just to see what they turn up….
But – when it comes to making race selections – I prefer to go with my own insights and instincts over these kinds of turnkey statistical methods….
But that isn’t to say I always get it right or that I always beat the stats. Because I don’t….
My main bets are on a couple of improving types who I believe are capable of taking another big step forward tomorrow….
Both are suited by the ground; both will relish the trip and I think both have been targeted at the race from a long way out. Both are up at decent prices too….
You can get immediate access to my bets (in the ATC archive) when you take a trial of my ATC service. Do that here….
That’s all from me for today.
I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….
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Until next time. Stay tuned.
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