Friday, 25th September 2020
A 29-runner field is massive in the greater scheme of things. It’s like two big-field handicaps in one….
But – in terms of the Cambridgeshire (3.35 tomorrow) – it’s the smallest turnout since 2008 and only the second time this century that less than 30 horses have lined up for the cavalry charge up the straight 9f strip….
No matter. We work with what we’re given. And what we’re given is a market headed by Roger Charlton’s Tempus at 6s….
The 4yo is unbeaten in two goes this term (granted one race was awarded to him in the Stewards’ room) and he’s proved quite convincingly that he’s up to C2 level and maybe even better….
In real terms he’s up 9lb for his trouble this term to a mark of 100. But he runs under a 4lb penalty tomorrow (off an effective mark of 97) with 3lbs of his rise still outstanding. As a result, he will carry a nice racing weight of 8-11….
Like I said, he’s trained by Roger Charlton – a real sharpshooter of a trainer in these big handicaps. One of the best around in my book. Coming out of his yard is a plus….
But the horse could have a pair of wings and I still wouldn’t back him at this morning’s single-figure price. He’s way too short for my tastes….
Of course, opposing short prices is my default setting. I take the short ones on even when they have rocket boosters fitted. But it’s not all about bloody-mindedness. I have valid doubts about the horse too. I’m mindful that Charlton has said that the horse needs a flat track with a bit of cut….
Will he handle the Newmarket dip? I don’t know. We must wait and find out…
Is good ground less than ideal? Quite possibly….
Is enough rain likely to fall to provide sufficient cut? Who knows? Forecasts are just that. They fall short of facts….
I don’t have all the answers. But the questions are valid and if you were thinking of taking the 6s about Tempus, you might want to factor your own responses to those questions into your final decision….
Sinjaari is plenty short enough too at 7s. But I’m not complaining. Between them, the top two in the market take a useful 27% out of the book – and that creates certain value further down the order….
Races like these can feel like a bit of a lottery – a case of throw a dart and hope it sticks….
I would usually hedge my bets a little in a contest with this many runners and go two-against-the-field – but not this year….
Maybe I’m feeling a bit gung-ho. Maybe I’ll live to regret it. But I’m heading into tomorrow afternoon’s feature handicap at Newmarket one-handed….
I’ve zeroed in on a horse I expect to improve quite a bit from his current mark – and at a big price….
I’m confident he’ll run well. And I reckon he’s got the top man for tomorrow’s job on his back too….
By the look of the market a little while ago, it looks like I won’t be alone in backing this horse. There’s been a little money for him in the last hour or so – enough to put the bookmakers on their guard. They’ve started clipping his price….
Don’t get me wrong, the price is still there. But for how long that’s the case I can’t say….
If you fancy following me in on my Cambridgeshire bet, you can get immediate access to my thoughts onsite in the ATC archive….
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Now is a really good time to have me onside….
Don’t ask me how these things work – sometimes I’m smoking hot and sometimes I’m as cold as a witch’s teat….
I’m not sure why form works in patches. But it does. Right now, I’m in a purple patch of the stuff – bagging four winners over the last month….
Brunch did the business for me up at York….
At Doncaster I got on Strait Of Hormuz and Tranchee at the best of the early prices….
Last weekend I was on Magical Island in the Silver Cup at Ayr – with the ATC readers who like to follow me in making hay at prices ranging from 22s to 28s….
Readers like JE….
“I am surprised you haven't been shouting your Silver Cup winner from the rooftops! I was very happy to get 28-1 EW from Bet365, greater odds than those quoted. A modest £15 EW netted me well over £500.”
And TG (one of Magical Island’s owners)….
“Congratulations on your tiptop tip of Magical Spirit to win the Ayr Silver Cup (18/1 or higher) last Saturday. As one of the owners of MS, I was pleased to have you on our side for his splendid win!”
“Magical Spirit in the Ayr Silver Cup returned 36's on Betfair. Happy days! Keep up the good work mate.”
Money won spends twice as sweetly as money earned – so I’m a happy camper right now and heading into this weekend full of confidence and feeling like I’m seeing it well….
I’m a picker in form right now. I expect my selection for tomorrow’s Cambridgeshire to produce a big run. I reckon I’m in with another good chance of a payout from a horse quoted at a nice each-way price….
That’s all from me for this week….
I’ll be back in your inbox on Thursday….
Until then. Stay tuned and enjoy your weekend….
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