Crowd Report

Week commencing 3rd December 2018….

Down in the mouth….

Outright fav-backers were down in the pocket – and down in the mouth – this week….

Any among the industry cannon fodder hoping to get a few quid to put by for Christmas were disappointed in their efforts….

A total of 173 outright favourites across the last 7-day period produced 64 winners at 37%....

It’s an impressive enough strike-rate. But the prices were short of being food enough to make the fav-backing game pay….

Backing all the favourites to 1-point level stakes produced a betting loss off -13.24 points….

To £20.00 level stakes, fav-backers are sitting losses for the week amounting to -£264.80….

Of course, the opposite is the case for the bookies. That last figure represents their profit….

If fav-backers follow these things at all (and I very much doubt they do) then Colin Tizzard would have been he trainer coming in for agricultural abuse in betting offices up and down the country….

Four outright favourites out of the West country man’s yard got turned over last week – producing a 4-point loss. Even Gold Cup winning trainers can make no guarantees when it comes to getting outright favourites to always live up their price tags….

If there is a message in this week’s figures for the fav-backing community, then it is this: concentrate your efforts in the non-handicaps and leave the handicaps alone….

Across the week backing the outright favourites in handicap races produced 32 winners. But it took 108 qualifying bets to get them….

The winning strike rate weighted in at 29.6%. Not bad. But the prices of the winners could not make up the ground lost on the losers. Losses to single point level stakes amounted to -15.76 points….

To £20.00 level stakes that loss adds up to -£315.20. Ouch! That hurts. And backers also had to endure the misery of a longest losing sequence that ran across 13 individual races….

On the other hand, sticking to backing the favourites in non-handicaps produced a profit – but not much of it and certainly not enough to make he effort of backing all 65 qualifiers worthwhile….

A total of 65 qualifying bets generated 32 winners at 49.2%. But profits amounted to just 2.52 points – or £50.40 to level stakes of £20.00.
That’s a return on investment of just 3.9%. Better than losing for sure – but is it worth the effort involved?

Your call….

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd