Wednesday, 8th October 2025
In ATC today….
I sometimes think we should change the name of this service to Mission Impossible….
…. when you consider the unfathomable nature of the big handicaps we target….
…. and this weekend’s Cesarewitch provides a particularly apt case in point….
Oh…. and you’ll find the horse that’s got my antenna twitching inside….
Read on….
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I sometimes think we should call this service Mission Impossible….
…. given the nature of the races we target – the most unfathomable handicaps on the programme….
It would be a particularly apt name this weekend with the headline handicap at Newmarket being the Cesarewitch….
The second leg of the autumn double is a funny race – a kind of hybrid….
…. almost as if it was custom-designed to bridge the gap between the end of the flat and the start of the jumps….
For a start, the trip – 2m2f – is more typical of the jumps than the flat….
…. and yards associated with the winter game have a fine recent record in the race….
…. 11/19 Cesarewitch winners had already won over hurdles….
…. and 7 had been involved at that year’s Cheltenham Festival….
But those stats won’t help much with splitting this year’s field….
…. given that 20/25 horses left in the race as of this morning are trained in dual-purpose yards….
The draw’s been a useful field-splitter in previous years….
Being out wide on any turning track is an obvious disadvantage….
In the Cesarewitch where as many as 36 runners have gone to post, getting caught out wide is a huge disadvantage….
…. one that adds up to significant yardage over the stamina-sapping trip….
In 23 renewals just one winner started in stall 25 or higher….
…. and punters have been able to put a line through horses drawn in the highest quarter of the draw with confidence….
But with just 25 horses set to run on Saturday as it stands – and the potential for a smaller field still….
…. the draw angle has been heavily diluted this time – likely to the point of worthlessness….
You probably still want to side with something that’s already won at the trip….
…. 22/23 winners – be they flat, jumps or dual-code horses….
…. had already won a race of some description over 2 miles or beyond – demonstrating a capacity to get home….
Recent form also remains a key consideration….
Winners of the race generally arrive on the back of a decent last-time-out placing....
…. 16/23 had produced a top-4 finish in their last race on the flat....
Weight carried is something to look at too – with 19/23 winners carrying 9-2 or less….
Admittedly, there’s not a whole lot to work with there – and it’s often like this with the big handicaps….
They’re not like big G1 races because winners seldom conform to a clear and consistent statistical profile that you can rely on for a strong steer year on year….
In the big handicaps – in the absence of anything that resembles a reliable blueprint – instinct is something to fall back on….
This takes time to develop, of course – and even then you can’t trust to it completely….
…. but the old radar…. the antenna…. the intuition…. feel…. juju…. call it what you will….
…. can guide you to horses of interest….
Horses like – if my antenna is not malfunctioning – Toll Stone….
Trained by Emmet Mullins – who won this race in 2023 with The Shunter (who looks likely to go again at the weekend aged 12)….
…. the 5yo first came to my attention last term after his run in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham – see here….
He’s been very lightly campaigned since then….
…. appearing just once on the level – in a valuable contest at Galway in July….
He was fancied enough to be third of 20 in the betting at the off….
…. but I’m not sure it was ever going to be his intended day because all the money came for winning stablemate Filey Bay – backed in from 20s to 7s in a big gamble….
Later the same week he ran a big race in a handicap hurdle at the same track – fancied again – finding just one too good….
He’s exactly the type of lightly-raced dual-purpose operator I’d expect his trainer to land big pots with – cross-code….
Rated just 85 – I see him running deep on Saturday….
…. and the general 20s (with some 25s about) is interesting….
A race like the Cesarewitch might be something akin to Mission Impossible from a betting perspective – but I choose to accept it….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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