".... where you want your Grand National pick to be...."

Tuesday, 17th February 2026

“…. where you want your Grand National pick to be….”

In ATC today….

After sending round my race profile for the Grand National yesterday….

…. I’ve got the race on my mind….

…. and I wanted to offer an observation on where you want your pick to be in the race – and why….

Oh…. and if you’re looking for an in-play strategy to take advantage of on the betting exchanges – bear this last point in mind….

Read on….

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The Grand National is still a way off – it’s run on April 11th….

…. but with the weights released a little later today….

…. and having distributed my race profile stats yesterday….

…. I’ve had the race on my mind….

…. and I wanted to bring you a couple of additional observations that sort of sit outside the main profile stats….

When you start sifting through this year’s Grand National runners – be very cautious about out-and-out hold-up horses….

It’s not impossible to win the race when you’re way back off the pace early doors in the Aintree showpiece….

…. One For Arthur came from way back to win in 2017….

…. and Noble Yeats wasn’t exactly in the vanguard in 2022….

…. but – by and large – it’s the horses going through the early and middle stages of the race positioned no worse than midfield that tend to come out on top….

I would have to think long and hard about backing one that needs to be to the rear early doors….

…. because it’s very difficult to make up ground in the later stages of this race….

The 4m2f trip tests the stamina of any horse….

…. and whilst there’s no doubt the 30 fences don’t present the stiff challenge that was the case back in the day….

…. make no mistake – the big Aintree fences still take some jumping when you’re getting tired (especially on a softer surface)….

…. and if you’re having to play catch up with horses 20+ lengths ahead of you….

…. a single error at your fences….

…. running into trouble of any kind (and there’s loads of potential trouble you can run into in the Grand National)….

…. any loss of go-forward momentum….

…. can be impossible to recover from….

All that said – take note of this next point (especially if you like a bet in-play on the exchanges)….

…. the most recent race evidence suggests you don’t want to be too close to the pace either….

Last year’s winner, Nick Rockett – watch that race again here….

…. and 2024 winner, I Am Maximus – review that edition here….

…. still had a good number of horses in front of them heading into the final stages of the race….

Jumping the third last fence – both horses were positioned in ninth place….

… meaning that they were further back at that stage of the race than all bar one winner – One For Arthur – across the last 40 years….

Of course, a couple of races wouldn’t normally be considered a sufficient dataset on which to base any firm conclusions….

…. and this year might very well offer an alternative in-race narrative….

But let’s not forget that the last two editions of the race have been very different – with just 32 and 34 runners going to post (as opposed to 40 horses in previous years)….

…. or that over the last six years the average official rating of participants has risen to 150+….

…. and that we might be observing a nascent blueprint that reveals the best way to win the revamped Grand National….

…. a blueprint in which the key is to sit back off stronger travelling horses than maybe used to contest the race….

…. let those horses cut one another’s throats up front….

…. and then make the winning move into the race just that bit later than was in vogue back in the day when the race wasn’t so heavy with class horses….

Who knows – I’m theorizing….

…. but as they approach the third fence from home in April it might be worth your while just checking on what’s quiet and going well behind the front pack….

…. and getting the best price you can about that horse on Betfair Exchange the moment it hits the landing side of that fence….

…. after all, you’d have had every chance of getting on the winner the last two years….

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That’s all for today….

Back tomorrow….

Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd