The pick of the prices at Ayr on Friday....

Thursday, 16th April 2026

The pick of the prices at Ayr on Friday….

In ATC today….

…. I bring you my best picks at Ayr tomorrow afternoon….

I’m on HOMBRE DE GUERRA in the 3.30 – up at 16s….

…. and I’m on SARACEN BEAU at 7s in the 4.05….

That’s the summary….

…. you’ll find all my reasoning below – as per usual….

Oh…. and if you’re looking for the standout place terms on offer – you’ll find them in the Bet Box below….

Read on….

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…. the Hillhouse Quarry - Ayr – 3.30....

Dan Skelton’s won five of the last nine renewals of this race….

…. so, it’s no surprise his runner this time around – Hoe Joly Smoke – is pretty prominent in the betting….

He’s off the back of a wind-operation, he comes here down in trip instead of going to Sandown – his favourite track – and running in next week’s bet365 Gold Cup like he did last year….

…. and it looks like another Dan Skelton plan off a 12lb lower mark than the 8yo ran off at Sandown last spring – just five runs back (Skelton certainly knows how to get them down the order quick-style!!)….

If you wanted to back him, I wouldn’t be the one to put you off….

The favourite Donnacha makes a pretty strong case for himself too on his first go since beating Jagwar a head at Cheltenham in January….

…. the 5lb rise he got for that looks eminently surmountable – given that the runner-up is now 8lb higher in the rankings than he was that day….

The sensible money probably goes for one of those two – I must confess it….

…. but nobody’s ever accused me of being sensible – which is just as well because I’m going to open the shoulders and have a swing of the bat at the 16s about HOMBRE DE GUERRA….

He steps up in trip for the first time on just his second start for Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore….

He was beaten too far to be too encouraged on his first go for them at Kelso back in February over 2m….

…. but he did finish off well having been outpaced – and they’d only had him a few days before he turned out there….

They’ve had a bit of time with him since and he could well find improvement over the additional yardage on better ground at a track where he’s undefeated over fences – albeit in lesser races than this….

He’s only 2lb above his last winning mark and whilst Derek Fox opts to ride a Myretown who has done nothing but disappoint this term….

…. I’m not going to read too much into that because there may be some loyalty issue in the equation – with the owners of Myretown as well as the horse….

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…. the Coral Handicap Hurdle – Ayr – 4.05....

Came From Nowhere – probably a little unlucky to lose at Newbury where he got it wrong at the last and couldn’t recover….

…. and A Perfect Day – beaten into second last time at Uttoxeter by a horse that went out and won a big race at Aintree last week and is now 10lb higher in the weights….

…. are both easy to get to – and the market has them in at the top of the betting….

But – at the prices – I prefer SARACEN BEAU at the 7s….

…. I think his last time out win at Doncaster – bloodless – was a perfect prep for this….

He’s gone up 7lb for it – and that’s fair enough….

…. because the way he won suggests he’s got tonnes in hand for a yard in rare form right now….

…. and I expect him to improve again kept to an intermediate trip….

We know he likes the track – he won over hurdles as a novice and was third in a bumper….

…. and he’s got a serious chance of landing the money….

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Now, just to recap….

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That’s all for today….

I’ll be back with more tomorrow….

Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd