Tuesday, 26th May 2026
In ATC today….
A couple of ATC readers write in with the same question….
…. one that’s of interest to the entire readership….
…. so, it’s appropriate to provide an open response….
Oh…. and I hope you made a few quid out of last weekend’s selections….
Read on….
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I was disappointed with Partisan Hero’s win at York….
…. not because he won – advised in this column on Friday at 16s & 14s….
…. but because he doubled in price – and was returned at 28s….
A win’s a win – and I’m not knocking it – but I feel like I left money on the table….
On the upside – see below – maybe some of the readers who struggle to get on with the firms early doors got on at bigger prices on Betfair Exchange on Saturday….
Pathein also ran a cracker at Goodwood….
…. his passage through the race wasn’t straightforward….
…. but when he got clear he ran on to finish in the frame….
He’d have been closer without the troubled passage….
…. but the winning favourite would have won whatever….
…. and – with the benefit of hindsight – the place finish was as much as we could reasonably hope for….
I hope you made a few quid out of it….
…. and clawed back the previous week’s losses….
Do let me know – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Backwards and forwards…. up and down…. round and round – that’s
this game in a nutshell….
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Reader GB asks a question….
“I am banned from most bookmakers in the UK (or limited to bets of less than £1) for the sin of taking too many value bets in years past, so I place everything through Betfair [Exchange]. The markets in Betfair tend to be very thin in the day preceding a race (especially in the place markets) so I place bets on the day. Are the bets for the ATC horses only value at the price you quote or greater and should be avoided if the price shortens or should the shorter price be taken?”
…. MB is on a similar track….
“I very rarely bet the evening before a race for fear of getting accounts closed. I realize your selections are all about the price and wondering if you have ever considered advising a minimum price you would accept as well as the advised price for people who will often miss the advertised prices.”
My response is probably of interest to a wider section of the readership….
…. and it’s appropriate to provide it openly as part of the column….
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A few weeks back I put up Mirsky at 10s and by the next morning he’d contracted to 5s....
If he'd been 5s the day before I’d have passed him over and looked for an alternative….
…. but there are other occasions when a horse has contracted in price – and I’d still have been a backer....
The bottom line is that judgments of this nature must be made on a case-by-case basis….
…. and the individual punter (you) must make his own decision about what price is acceptable (or not) given the case that's been made....
I know this isn't what anybody wants to hear….
…. and that it may be interpreted as a passing of the buck....
.... but it’s the reality of the situation....
No two cases are the same and I'm not in a position to offer on-the-day do- we-or-don't-we advice on every horse I put up....
I put a horse up because I reckon it’s a value pick at the point I go to publication….
…. I get it that you might be unable to get on at that price on the day for whatever reasons (you're not alone)….
…. and I imagine that what you'd like is for me to say at what point that horse stops representing value (in my opinion)....
.... but that isn't straightforward either – with me going out 24+ hours in advance of a race and conditions, variables, and circumstances all subject to considerable change....
And – of course – the initial price point makes a big contextual difference too….
A 5s shot contracting into 3s is a different scenario from a 20s shot into 16s....
No two scenarios are the same….
…. there are lots of moving parts….
…. and there’s no one-size-fits-all solution....
It boils down to preference….
If I make a case for a horse at 20s….
…. and the horse contracts in price to 10s the next day….
…. do you like the case I made enough to accept the price?
If yes, go in….
…. if it feels like you've missed the price – stay out….
Which, of course, might mean you miss a winner – like Mirsky….
Nothing is straightforward....
The ATC service is what it is….
…. specialized….
…. small in reach….
…. and on a mission to bag the best prices about my selections the day before racing….
I mention the small reach of ATC for a reason….
…. because it’s that feature which means prices are available and easy to get if you can get on….
I’m not Tom Segal….
…. or Paul Kealy….
…. or any of the rest of the big guns – who all have thousands of punters who follow their every selection and swiftly wreck the price about everything they put….
With me, the price is there if you can get on….
Of course, I recognize and appreciate that – as victims of their own value-seeking success – some readers can’t….
…. and if you’re one of those readers I’m sorry for that….
…. sorry that the ATC service isn't an exact fit for your particular circumstances....
But it is what is….
…. I can only find the horses….
…. I can’t make the markets or the layers behave how we might like them to….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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