Wednesday, 27th May 2026
In ATC today….
The Derby is run a week on Saturday….
…. the trials are done and the market’s sorted the contenders….
…. now is a good time to look at something not fully priced in….
Oh…. and very few punters will be looking from this angle….
Read on….
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The Derby is run at Epsom on 6th June….
The trial-based evidence is in….
…. the market has been shuffled….
…. and Aiden O’Brien – winner of the race 11 times since 2001 – has yet another ultra-strong hand to play….
His Benvenuto Cellini is the jolly – up at 3s – having won the Chester Vase….
…. his Dee Stakes winner Constitution River is in at 7/2….
…. whilst Andrew Balding’s Item – winner of the Dante – is up at 4s….
The market says it’s between them….
…. but we mustn’t forget that all these 3yo horses are improving week-by-week at this early stage of the season….
…. or that horses turned out in recent trials might be different propositions at Epsom….
On a betting level – it’s a proper conundrum….
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With so many opinions yet to find market expression….
…. and prices liable to shift as race day nears….
…. my inclination is to dig about and see what the market hasn’t priced in….
There’s an interesting angle to come at it from – breeding stats….
…. specifically – the Dosage Index….
Breeding stats offer significant clues as to how individual horses might cope with the challenge presented by a Derby….
…. a real test of stamina for a 3yo horse in early June….
Many runners will turn out having never previously attempted the 12f trip….
…. and whether an individual horse will stay is impossible to call with certainty….
Some will….
….some won’t….
…. others will need further still….
Figuring out ahead of time which horses are most likely to fall into which category is a useful exercise….
…. and the Dosage Index helps us do just that….
You can get all the relevant Dosage Index figures for any horse – past or present – at Pedigree Query….
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Working with Dosage profiles of horses is not second nature to everybody….
So, we’ll use the Dosage Profile of the 2015 Derby winner, Golden Horn, to highlight what’s what….
Every horse has different influences in its pedigree – ranging from outright speed to outright stamina….
Dosage narrows down influences in a pedigree to just a relatively few stallions….
These are called chefs-de-race, and they are categorized according to the type of horses they tend to produce….
These chef-de-race stallions fall into 5 distinct categories: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid & Professional….
I don’t want to get into the mind-numbing detail of how the points in any horse’s Dosage Profile are awarded. It’s not necessary....
For our agricultural purposes, it is enough to know that Golden Horn has 5 Brilliant points, 3 Intermediate, 28 Classic, 2 Solid and 0 Professional points.
That’s 38 Dosage Points in total. His Dosage Index figure is 1.38 and his Centre of Distribution figure is 0.29.
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I’ve looked at the Derby winners over the last 42 years to determine any significant commonalities in their Dosage Profiles….
…. an analysis that might give us some clear indications of what we should look for in this year’s runners....
Here’s what I found:
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The optimum blend of speed and stamina required to win a Derby is generally expressed as a DI figure of 1.00 and a CD figure of 0.00....
The table below displays the DI and CD figures of the last 26 Derby winners….
Over that 26-year period the average DI of a Derby winner stands at 0.85….
The median CD figure over the same period amounts to just about -0.03....
It’s quick and dirty but horses closest to those averages would be of more interest – on the figures – than the horses furthest away….
A word on the CD figure: the lower the figure the more stamina the horse possesses. The higher the figure, the more speed....
If -0.03 is the median CD of a Derby winner, a horse going into the race with a figure significantly bigger may have staying issues….
…. one going in with a significantly lower figure may need further than the Derby trip….
…. that’s the general theory….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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