".... what you want in the Great St Wilfrid...."

Wednesday, 12th August 2026

“…. what you want in the Great St Wilfrid….”

In ATC today….

Northern trainers expect to win this one….

…. and a high stall is a BIG advantage….

…. especially if your horse has plenty of early pace….

Oh…. and there’s a horse for the Watch List….

Read on….

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Ripon has it’s day in the sun on Saturday….

…. with the Great St Wilfrid the headlining handicap on what is a relatively quiet afternoon ahead of next week’s Ebor meeting at York….

It’s a day on which the Northern trainers traditionally take center stage….

It’s not like they don’t win big handicaps in the South – because they do….

…. but they definitely expect to win this one in the North – and they have a long track record of getting the job done….

Trainers based in North Yorkshire have won 12 of the last 15 renewals….

…. and two more were won by Tracey Waggott and Michael Dods who train in the neighboring county of Durham….

Mick Appleby was the exception to the rule with Intervention last year….

…. and you can be sure the locals will be out to put right that unpalatable aberration….

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The table below shows the starting stalls of the winner and the next three home across the last 15 years – along with field size….

Double figure stalls account for nine of the winners….

…. and it’s worth noting that four of the six winners to start from a single-figure stall did so in years when the word ‘soft’ appeared in the official going description….

…. not something that’s likely to be an issue this time around….

A big field pretty much always turns out for this race – with an average field size of 18.7 runners over the period….

…. where the horses that finished close up start the race is probably as instructive as where the winner started….

…. and 34 of the 45 horses to finish second, third, or fourth started in a double-figure stall – which equates to 75.5%....

When the ground is fast the quickest part of the Ripon track is consistently up against the stands-side rail….

…. and horses drawn high that can bounce out quickly can easily grab that rail – which helps keep them balanced down the tricky and undulating straight….

If you like to play the percentages – double-figure stalls are very much the order of the day….

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In addition to a double-figure stall, you also want a horse that can race on the pace….

The table below highlights the early position adopted by each of the last 15 winners….

…. and it’s quite clear that most either cut out the early fractions or raced prominently….

Ripon's straight track features a subtle ridge just under two furlongs from the post….

…. which front-runners and prominent horses can use to kick away from the closers….

…. a tactic that is particularly effective in the fast ground conditions we’re likely to get on Saturday….

Horses running off the pace can find it very difficult to reel those leaders in on that downhill stretch to the post – once they’ve gone….

…. especially if they find themselves marooned out in the middle of the track – on ground that’s a little slower….

…. or if they find trouble in running….

High-drawn horses with proven early speed offer the strongest statistical starting point in Saturday’s race….

…. and running out of a Northern yard is a big bonus….

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Ryan Moore might have won the Silver Saddle for accumulating most points in Saturday’s Shergar Cup at Ascot….

…. but he gave Ozat way too much to do in the Mile….

Crown Board dictated the fractions from the front – but he didn’t go too hard….

…. and when he changed gear and pressed on a furlong out it made it very difficult for those coming from off the pace to get anywhere near him….

Ozat made the best fist of it under Moore – passing horses and making up ground in the final quarter-mile – but by then the bird had flown….

Had Moore sat a little hander early doors it might have been a different story – but a slow start didn’t help with that….

All that said it was an encouraging performance from a horse that had struggled to find form since coming from France to join Ian Williams….

He’s dropped 6lb in the handicap to 97, he’s clearly fit and – if or when things fall right – he can win a pot from that perch….

He’s going on to the Watch List….

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That’s all for today….

Back tomorrow….

Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd