Wednesday, 2nd September 2026
In ATC today….
The St Leger is run at Doncaster a week on Saturday….
…. it’s one of those non-handicap races this column likes to target….
…. and the historic record provides useful clues for punters….
Oh…. and some of these numbers have found almost every winner of the St Leger across the last four decades….
Read on….
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Today, I’m looking a little further ahead….
…. to the St Leger – which is run at Doncaster a week on Saturday….
It’s not a handicap – the metier of this column….
…. but we’re not cranks about these things….
I target the St Leger (I know readers do too) because I’ve got pointers that help construct an informed view….
…. plus, it’s a race with a healthy ante-post betting market….
…. and all the key form is logged in the book with less than a fortnight to go to raceday….
In short, it’s a good time to start doing the spadework for the last classic of the 2026 turf flat season….
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This G1 is run over the extended 14f and presents 3yo colts and fillies with a test of stamina....
How well each runner will cope is – generally – a complete unknown….
…. and that’s because a lot of horses taking part won’t have been tested beyond 12f....
Just 9 of the last 25 St Leger winners had previously gone beyond 12f….
Of those, 7 had gone beyond 13f....
Those stats underline a principal challenge facing punters….
…. and that is figuring out which horses will excel for a longer trip….
…. and which will fold as stamina reserves prove inadequate....
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The stats provide helpful pointers….
I studied numbers related to the last 42 St Leger renewals and there are definite key specifics to consider….
…. 27 of 42 winners were progeny of a sire with a Stamina Index figure of 11.0 or bigger….
…. 9 of the 15 that didn’t conform to that stat were product of a dam whose sire had a Stamina Index of 10.3 or bigger….
…. in other words, they had stamina on the dam side....
And there’s a quick and dirty way of figuring out whether or not a horse is likely to possess sufficient stamina for a St Leger….
…. simply add the Stamina Index of the sire to the Stamina Index figure of the dam sire….
…. and – if the sum totals 19.4 or bigger – put a tick against that horse....
…. because 35 of 38 winners – for which figures exist – met that particular yardstick….
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The Dosage Index also helps punters sort wheat from chaff….
Working with Dosage profiles of horses is not second nature to everybody….
…. so, we’ll use the Dosage Profile of 2015 St Leger winner, Simple Verse, to highlight what’s what:
Every horse has different influences in its pedigree – ranging from outright speed to outright stamina....
Dosage narrows down influences in a pedigree to just a relatively few stallions.
…. these are called chefs-de-race and they are categorized according to the type of horses they tend to produce....
These chef-de-race stallions fall into five distinct categories: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid & Professional....
I don’t want to get into the mind-numbing detail of how the points in any horse’s Dosage Profile are awarded....
For our agricultural purposes, it is enough to know that Simple Verse has 4 Brilliant points; 2 Intermediate; 18 Classic; 7 Solid; and 1 Professional points.
That’s 32 Dosage Points in total. Her Dosage Index figure is 0.88 and her Centre of Distribution figure is 0.03.
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As part of its Dosage Profile a horse is awarded a Centre of Distribution (CD) figure on a scale that ranges from +2.00 to -2.00....
34 of the last 42 St Leger winners had a CD figure between -0.19 and 0.50….
…. and you can get the CD figures for this year’s runners here....
The S (Solid) and P (Professional) figures are particularly important when it comes to inherited stamina….
37 of the last 42 St Leger winners had at least five S and P points (when added together) in their respective Dosage Profiles….
Something else to think about….
…. typical St Leger winners are generally well-bred creatures with plenty of chef-de-race sires present in their family trees....
…. so much so that 41 of the last 42 winners had 16+ points in their Dosage Profile....
…. and 36 had 20+ points in their Dosage Profiles....
Get Dosage Profiles for this year’s St Leger candidates here....
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There are more key statistical tests you might apply to isolate likely St Leger types….
Look for a Racing Post rating of 110+ in one or both of a horse’s last two runs before heading to Doncaster….
…. 22 of the last 26 winners met that yardstick....
Horses need to be conditioned to run longer distances….
…. otherwise, there’s a danger they’ll run too free or pull too hard when they step up in trip....
Whilst St Leger runners might not have gone beyond 12f previously….
…. ideally you’d like to see that a ‘trip education’ has taken place....
I look for horses that have run at least twice at 12f or beyond….
…. 23 of the last 26 winners met that yardstick....
Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results….
…. but the historic record is clear….
…. horses that best-conform to my featured yardsticks have been a good pool of horses to focus on in the St Leger over the best part of the last four decades….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – check out this weekend’s potential target races….
Contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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