What the stats tell us about the Portland....

Thursday, 3rd September 2026

What the stats tell us about the Portland….

St Leger pointers & clues….

In ATC today….

The Portland is the big betting heat at next week’s St Leger meeting….

…. it’s a unique race for horses that need further than 5f but don’t quite get 6f.….

…. the historic record – going back 20+ years – reveals key pointers to factor into your deliberations….

Oh…. and 20 of the last 24 winners ticked a specific box – a really good place to start the field-splitting process….

Read on….

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The Portland – run a week on Saturday – is the big handicap betting heat at next week’s St Leger meeting at Doncaster….

…. and it always attracts a big field….

Contested over 5f and 143 yards up the Town Moor straight, the race is a real target for a unique and peculiar group of specialists....

I’m talking about the horses that need a slightly stiffer test than the bare 5f presents….

…. but which are not quite at their very best when asked to go 6f....

It’s a real in-between trip. You can think of it as a stiff 5f or an easy 6f....

Whatever. Top-class handicappers don’t get to race for good money over this kind of trip very often….

…. so, the Portland is a proper target race for trainers with a horse in their ranks who requires this very precise test....

I’ll be looking for the value when the final declarations are in….

…. but in advance of races like this, it’s always useful to know what kind of horse generally tends to come out on top....

And the stats provide a route to understanding….

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All that said it bears repeating that stats don’t run in races....

…. they certainly don’t win them….

…. nor are they 100% fool-proof….

Even the very strongest stats, trends, and result patterns are there to be over-turned....

Stats are a guide. No more and no less….

…. they provide context….

…. but they are not an entirely trustworthy selection tool in their own right....

It might be the case that younger horses have the best record in a specific race….

…. but you can never take the individual out of the general….

Whether or not that young-horse trend is upheld this time round will very much depend on the individual qualities of the specific younger horses that are set to run this time round….

A poor or out-of-form younger horse isn’t necessarily going to run well, win, or place simply because it happens to be young....

My basic point is this….

…. the specific facts must always take precedence over the general….

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The trick with stats is to let them guide you to areas and horses of interest….

…. but not to take them too literally....

Let the stats highlight a group of horses….

…. then subject that specific group to full scrutiny....

It’s like due diligence in the financial markets….

You know that stocks always make money for investors over time….

…. but you don’t just invest in any stock and expect the general trend to hold true whatever....

Instead, you do the background digging….

…. you look at a few stocks, study the various businesses concerned, and figure out their prospects over the long term….

…. then you decide....

The general trend acts as a guide to an area of interest….

…. but it’s the nitty-gritty of the individual stock that ultimately drives your investment decision….

It’s the same thing with horses….

…. the general trend highlights areas worthy of additional investigation….

….but it’s the investigatory process into the individual horse that will (or should) determine whether or not you bet it….

The stats are an aide to understanding and help to find a route into a specific race….

…. they are a starting point….

…. not the end destination....

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I’ve studied the last 24 renewals of the Portland….

…. looking for pointers and potential routes into the race....

A few things stand out – highlighting areas of interest within the race….

• 14/24 winners were officially rated 95 to 102….

• The 3yo population has only managed a single winner over the period (Oxted – a subsequent G1 winner – in 2019) – despite 53 having had a go…..

• The 5yo runners have produced most wins over the period (10). The 4yo runners have produced most overall placers (including winners) over the period (41). The percentage play is to focus most attention on those two groups….

• The least exposed runners (those having raced 10 or fewer times) have a strong record – producing 7 wins and 8 additional placers from just 49 runners overall. That’s a total place strike rate of 30.6% – stellar in the contest of a big-field handicap over two decades. Qualifying horses merit serious consideration this time round….

• The high half of the draw has produced 20/24 winners….

• Course form has a reasonable level of significance – with 15/24 winners having already run on Town Moor….

Those are the strongest pointers I can extract from the previous 24 renewals of the Portland….

On their own they won’t pinpoint the winner….

…. but they will highlight horses worthy of closer inspection and thought….

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That’s all for today….

Back tomorrow….

Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd