Tuesday, 22nd September 2026
In ATC today….
It’s the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket on Saturday….
…. a prestigious and valuable race with a rich history….
…. that presents punters with a unique set of challenges….
Oh…. and everything’s on the change and up in the air – just to make things that bit more difficult….
Read on….
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Do you know how it feels to be kicked in the guts by a horse?
I don’t….
…. but I imagine it feels pretty much how I felt on Saturday afternoon when Station X won the Silver Cup at Ayr….
I’d put him up the week before for the Portland – where he’d finished well-beaten….
…. far enough beaten for me not to forgive him the run….
But it turns out that the Doncaster performance was a mere aberration that
that could be forgiven….
…. and the 4yo resumed his progressive streak at Ayr – rewarding loyalists at a nice price….
Doh!
That was bad enough….
…. but this is horse racing – and it can always get worse….
…. which it duly did when Pellitory – another horse well-and truly on the ATC radar this term – went out and won the Gold Cup less than an hour later….
Both winners were eminently gettable….
…. I missed both….
…. and each left a sour taste in the mouth….
But it’s always easy in hindsight, isn’t it?
All you can you do is move on to the next race – Saturday’s Cambridgeshire….
…. a contest which looks like it’s on the change….
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Between 2002 and 2024 an average of 31 runners went to post for the charge up Newmarket’s 9f straight….
Last year ‘just’ 23 horses took part….
…. and with only 35 still holding entries this morning for Saturday’s renewal….
…. we could be looking at another under-subscribed edition of the race….
It’s a pity – in my view – if that’s the direction we’re heading in….
…. because the mammoth field is an intrinsic feature of what the Cambridgeshire is all about….
For years it’s been the most heavily-populated straight track handicap in Britain….
…. offering a unique ‘volume’ challenge to punters that no other handicap could match….
Last year’s field of 23 runners is hardly small….
…. but it’s not so very different from plenty of handicaps we get throughout the season at Ascot, for example….
…. and a reduced field serves to make the great race – first run in 1839 – something run-of-the-mill rather than something distinct with a flavour all of its own….
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And – speaking of change – where do we stand with the draw?
High stalls had enjoyed a good run heading into the 2024 renewal….
The previous 8 winners had come from stalls 26, 21, 25, 29, 21, 29, 28 & 35….
…. and the runners-up had started in stalls 19, 22, 27, 15, 25, 22, 35 & 25….
The effect had tapered off for horses finishing 3rd, 4th, and 5th….
…. but – even so – 11/23 such finishers had started in stall 19+….
In other words, the draw had offered punters a pretty effective block on which to slice and dice the big field….
But – and it’s a big BUT – everything has changed in the last couple of years….
In 2024, 32mm of rain in the week leading up to the race saw to it that nearside horses (drawn high) had no chance – none at all….
…. and the first seven home started in stalls 4, 2, 11, 6, 3, 8 and 5….
Last year – with getting on for a third fewer runners than normal – Boiling Point won from stall 6 with Indalo chasing him home from stall 3….
Given the last two renewals, it would be understandable if punters were cautious about trusting to draw stats this time around….
…. but a maximum field (or something more like it)….
…. on a track that hasn’t been turned into a swamp by rain….
…. could well produce a reversion to the bias for high stalls….
…. or not….
The ground is good to firm right now – and there’s not much forecast in the way of rain….
…. but we’re still pretty much in the dark as to field size….
In short, it’s a wait-and-see-how-things-pan-out job….
Who said this game was easy?
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To win a regular Cambridgeshire a horse must put 30+ smart rivals to the sword….
…. and – with rare exceptions – it takes a fit and in-form horse to do that....
Winners generally advertise well-being on their previous assignment….
…. 18/19 had raced since the start of August….
…. 17 appeared in a handicap last time – 14 at C2 level….
…. and 14/19 finished in the first five (four won) – just two being beaten 4+ lengths….
One that got beat further had contested a G2 the time before – and was clearly up against superior rivals….
…. the other was 2017 winner, Dolphin Vista. He got smashed the time before and went on to win the big one sent off at 50s….
That’s racing for you – nothing is straightforward....
My thoughts are in train….
…. more observations and spadework as the week rolls on….
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That’s all for now. Back tomorrow….
Meantime contact me at: nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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