Tuesday, 6th October 2026
In ATC today….
I knew Thundering On wouldn’t win Sunday’s Arc….
…. and I knew it several hours before the off….
…. simply because of what one very well-connected man didn’t say….
Oh…. and I hate that….
Read on….
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One of my pet hates is knowing that a horse I’ve put up is headed for defeat before the race even starts….
…. which is what happened in Sunday’s Arc – at least where Thundering On is concerned….
IF – a long-time friend of this column – got in touch on Friday afternoon asking if I still fancied the filly….
I was certainly happy with the bet at that point….
…. having taken the 20s after she flopped at a short price in the Pretty Polly at the Curragh in June….
…. and having watched her win in September’s Blandford Stakes at that same track – after which her general price for the Arc had contracted to 8s….
Given the 3yo filly’s full slate of concessions and allowances….
…. and given the fact that she’d bounced back to form and proved her fitness just three weeks earlier – in good style too….
…. there seemed enough to be optimistic about heading into Sunday afternoon….
…. oh…. and given the history…. stall 3 didn’t look like too bad a stall to be starting out from either….
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Heading into the weekend, any slight sense of foreboding or doubt I felt was very much based on three things….
…. one, the weather and the going….
…. two, Dylan Browne McMonagle’s absence from the saddle – owing to injury….
…. and three, a complete lack of positive noise coming out of the Thundering On camp….
If I can expand a little on each of those points in turn….
…. a lack of recent rain meant the Arc was run on quicker ground than normal and Thundering On’s two best performances – at Epsom and the Curragh – had been achieved on a surface offering juice….
…. there’s nothing wrong with Pierre-Charles Boudot as a jockey – he’s certainly a lot better than me….
…. but it simply has to be a negative of sorts in a big race like the Arc to be without your regular pilot (especially when your regular pilot is one of the up-and-coming young guns of the international game)….
…. and whilst Joseph O’Brien is never going to win any prizes for saying more than necessary….
…. a three word preview of his horse’s condition and chances in the middle of last week – “…. all is great….” – gave me a shade the opposite impression….
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Jumping forward to Sunday afternoon….
…. Thundering On was up against it from the absolute get-go….
…. starting slowly from her inside stall….
…. and conceding loads of ground to everything on her left-hand side before she’d taken even half-a-dozen strides….
It’s too much to blame the jockey….
…. it was way too early for the ground to become a terminal factor….
…. and the tardy start is probably best categorized as one of those on-the-day things that cannot be factored in or legislated for beforehand….
But you know it’s not your day when your horse is drawn in one of the eight inside stalls that’s produced 19 of the last 24 race winners….
…. but ends up making its challenge down the outside – wider out on the track than the two horses that had started the race in the two widest stalls of all….
Daryz – he finished out wider than he started too – proved that if you’re good enough you can do it however you want from wherever you want….
…. but he was further forward earlier in the race than Thundering On – and finished off the race better too….
…. perhaps getting a cleaner passage and certainly enjoying the underfoot conditions more….
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The best horse won on the day – no doubt….
…. but going back to Sunday morning – heading to Portsmouth on the first train from Crewe – I’d already written my bet off….
When I read somewhere that Kevin Blake had put Kalpana up as his Arc pick – that felt like a nail being tapped into the coffin lid….
I don’t know Kevin Blake – I’ve never met him – but he’s clearly very knowledgeable….
…. knowledgeable enough to have secured bandwidth on multiple racing media platforms….
…. and he’s very bright….
…. bright enough to be involved with the Joseph O’Brien team in a race-planning role (as I understand it)….
In short, Blake is a Joseph O’Brien insider who knows more than most about what’s happening behind the scenes in the top-end yard in County Kilkenny….
The fact that a key team player with that level of access put up the Juddmonte horse Kalpana as his pick was a bad enough omen….
…. but when I dug deeper and found that Blake hadn’t even put Thundering On in his first three in a video recorded for At The Races – that was the kiss of death….
Of course, Blake’s just another guy with an opinion – he isn’t the last word….
…. but he’s a little too well-connected to the horse to dismiss his lack of support out of hand – and digging about further the ground seemed to be the big concern….
Whatever – sometimes you just know. You get the message….
…. and I got the message – loud and clear…
Somewhere ahead of landing at Euston station, I knew I’d got the value price at 20s, but I also knew – for sure – before the race was even run that I wasn’t going to collect….
…. and I absolutely hate it when that happens….
Kevin Blake, thanks for nothing….
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That’s all for now. Back tomorrow….
Meantime contact me at: nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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