Wednesday, 14th October 2026
In ATC today….
I’m under the weather with a stinking cold….
…. and not feeling my usual self….
…. so, we’ll dip into the ATC archive for a reminder on why I do things the way I do….
Read on….
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A question from JW that others have posed previously....
‘Why do you go in so early? Why don’t you send your selections out later? You send your bets out 24-hours and more ahead of the race. I think you send them too early.’
I get where JW is coming from….
…. but I do what I do for a reason….
…. and I won’t change….
Here’s my take....
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There are two good times to strike bets….
One is right at the death – in the moments before the off....
…. and I wouldn’t criticize anybody who plays that way....
In the moments before the off, prices are at their most efficient....
…. telling you as much as they ever can….
At that point….
…. everything that’s known….
…. all the details, data, developments, circumstances, conditions, and relevant sundry variables….
…. are factored into the odds....
When you bet late – you bet with maximum information to hand. No doubt….
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You know all about underfoot conditions....
You’ve watched earlier races on the card….
…. seen race times….
…. observed kick-back…. the effects of the wind…. late rainfall….
And you’ve heard jockeys comment on the state of the ground….
…. seen if horses are finishing tired….
…. noted if specific ground specialists are coming to the fore….
And you know as much as it’s possible to know about how the track is riding….
…. the parts that are favoured….
…. the effects of the draw….
…. whether ground is easy to make up from behind....
You know about non-runners…. jockey changes…. overweight riders....
…. which trainer’s hit form after weeks on the cold list….
…. which high-profile owner’s turned up – unexpectedly….
You’ve seen connections interviewed on TV – gaining insight into their thoughts and expectations....
And you know what the money says….
…. what it fancies….
…. what it doesn’t….
…. the effect of big tipsters….
Prices are a numerical reflection of information….
…. of what people in the market know….
…. or think they know….
It makes sense that a punter might want to see as much of that information as possible – expressed in prices – before making a betting decision....
I wouldn’t put that punter off. I wouldn’t criticize him. He has a game plan. His actions show evidence of thought. I know where he’s coming from – and I respect his game....
…. it’s just not my game....
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I’m an early doors man….
I like to get into the betting markets early....
Few services go up with their selections before me….
…. one or two newspapermen beat me to it….
…. but 99% are a long way behind....
That’s not me putting other pickers down. It’s just a simple statement of fact….
I go up with my picks earlier than most – right or wrong, for better or worse….
That’s the way I work – and I work that way for a reason....
Everything is about getting the price for me….
I want to find the right horse at what I believe to be the wrong price….
…. and I want the best wrong price possible....
Not the price that would be available when other market players have had time to spot the same thing I’ve spotted – and the bookies are latching on....
Not the slightly-reduced price that might be available if I hang on a bit and wait for someone else to go up with my opinion first – because I’m too weak-kneed to stick my neck out or too insecure to be seen to be wrong....
Not the much-worse price that would be available if I wait until the moments before the off and give every other player in the market all the time they need to beat me to the punch....
In the betting world, first-up is best-dressed. I want the best price going – the best price that my selection is ever going to be….
…. and – in my experience – early-doors is the best time to go out and scoop that price up….
…. when the layers are at their most vulnerable and their most ignorant....
I’m never going to get the best price every time. But I have a reasonable enough record….
…. and that’s because I go out early – not late....
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The perceived downside of how I work….
… (and I don’t see it is a downside)….
…. is that I’m wholly reliant on my own analysis....
Because I go out early, I must do without information that arrives later....
I can’t watch earlier races on the card for a steer….
…. I can’t see how the money talks….
…. I don’t get the benefit of what a trainer says in the morning paper….
…. I don’t get to factor in what big tipsters – or other clever people – think….
I must do without all that ‘information’....
But that’s fair enough….
…. third party opinions aren’t worth a carrot anyway….
…. and do more to confuse than clarify....
In some respects, information based on third-party opinion is like horse manure….
…. a little is useful – good for the roses….
…. too much is more of a problem than a benefit – stinking the place out….
As a punter who doesn’t give a hoot what anybody else thinks anyway….
…. whoever or whatever they are….
…. I find third-party opinion easy to sacrifice without discomfort or regret....
If I could have all the information on the ground….
…. and how the track was riding….
….12 or 18 hours ahead of everybody else….
…. I’d take that advantage in a heartbeat....
But that’s all. Everything else I can live without....
All things taken together….
…. going in early delivers more benefits to my gameplan than going in late….
That’s how I see it. And that’s how I play it….
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That’s all for now. Back tomorrow….
Meantime contact me at: nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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