Where my contrarian money is going tomorrow....

Last Updated: 13.01.2017

Friday, 13th January 2017

Where my contrarian money is going tomorrow….

Frost is the big worry at Warwick. There’s a frosty forecast for today and for tomorrow morning….

But the frost covers were down well ahead of time and they’re doing all they can to ensure racing goes ahead tomorrow afternoon….

This morning officials at the track were optimistic that they can beat whatever the weather throws at them over the next 24-hours…. And we hope they do….

In the meantime, we punters must work on the principle that racing will indeed take place. If it does, then I expect the ground will be soft….

  • A year on from favouritism….

This time last year SEGO SUCCESS was heading into the Classic Chase as the race favourite.

In the event, he let backers down – getting no further than the second fence. But connections are back with the 9-year-old for another go and at a general 14s – twice the price he was sent off last year – I think he’s value….

Horses come in and out of vogue. Sometimes it is hard to figure out why. Not so with Sego Success….

He went into last season’s edition of tomorrow’s race on the back of a 5-length success at Doncaster. The market likes an impressive last-time-out winner. So, the money came for him….

This time round Sego Success hasn’t won in the build up to the race. On the numbers the level of form he’s produced is not much different, but he’s finished down the field and that different impression counts with the market. Hence the double-figure quote this time round….

I think the market is missing a trick. Sego Success is 6lbs lower down the handicap than he was this time last year. That does nothing but improve his chance in my book. And I like the fact that Alan King has chosen to go with first-time-blinkers.

King reports that he schooled the horse in the headgear at home earlier in the week – and that it sharpened the horse up ‘a lot’. That’s encouraging. If the blinkers can wring a bit more out of the horse, then he must be in there with a very good chance. The 14s is a nice price….

Alan King has a cracking record in the Classic Chase. His last 10 participants have recorded two wins and three places. He’s also saddled one that finished 4th. This is clearly a race that the master of Barbury Castle likes to target. Sego Success is the live one to be on tomorrow in my book. I’ll be backing the horse each-way.

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….

In the Classic Handicap Chase (3.35 @ Warwick)....

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – SEGO SUCCESS each-way (14s generally)

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for now. I’ll be back in your inbox a little later with ATC Extra – when we’ll be targeting the prices in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton….

Until then….

 

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd