Tuesday, 24th January 2017
Thursday afternoon’s Thyestes Handicap Chase is one of the highlights of the Irish jumps programme….
The Grade A handicap offers an opportunity to check out horses that might well play a part in future editions of the British and Irish Grand Nationals.
Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde both won the Thyestes in the season prior to winning the big one at Aintree….
And, like the Hennessy Gold Cup, the Thyestes is a big handicap that can offer clues pertaining to the Gold Cup at Cheltenham in March. On His Own (2014) and Djakadam (2015) both won the Thyestes before following up a few weeks later with huge runs and frame finishes in the big one at Cheltenham….
Future clues are one thing, but the Thyestes is also a fantastic standalone betting event. Particularly for contrarian value-seekers like us. The prize money up for grabs always produces a big competitive field and the market frequently over-bets some participants whilst under-estimating others.
The race is perfect for our purposes – despite being run on a Thursday afternoon – and is always worth a bit of pre-event digging to isolate potentially fruitful angles of approach….
Willie Mullins has by far and away the most productive record in the race this century….
Handicaps are not his focus. His sights are generally set on the big Grade races. But this race is an exception. He appears to like to win it.
His last 35 participants have produced 5 wins and 7 places between them. Four additional runners made the top 6. And not all went off backed into single-figure prices….
Mullins has half a dozen horses still entered in Thursday’s renewal. My preference would be to focus on the more lightly-raced runners. His last 19 Thyestes runners that had raced 10 times or fewer over fences produced 5 wins and 5 places. The less exposed sorts have done the bulk of the winning and placing….
Tony Martin only has Gallant Oscar in the race. But the Martin record commands respect. He’s been frugal with his entries – just 6 this century. But when they show up they tend to show up well – that half dozen runners produced a winner and 4 places.
Gordon Elliott is a hungry trainer. He wants to win all the big prizes. And who can blame him? He’s making a habit of shot-gunning the big handicaps with up to a dozen entries. He still has 11 in Thursday’s race.
His 9 runners to date have produced 3 places – including two last term. He’ll be running something that gets competitive – that’s for sure….
The historic record doesn’t throw up too many convincing angles – but what it does highlight is worth noting….
The race – often run on heavy ground – has generally favoured horses carrying lower weights….
Just 3 of the last 15 winners of the Thyestes carried more than 11-00 to victory. Siegemaster carried 11-07 to victory in 2011. On His Own carried 11-06 in 2014. Djakadam carried 11-10 in 2015.
It is worth noting that all three of those horses were officially rated 145 or lower at the time of their victories.
The stats also tell us that it is worth focusing primarily on horses that have shown a little something in recent times….
Eight of the last 10 winners of the race had won or placed in one or both of their last two runs.
And bear in mind that 13 of the last 15 winners had been seen on the track in the last 30 days….
Here at Against the Crowd we always hope to find the odd interesting angle into a race that the rest of the market is perhaps over-looking. It’s part of our contrarian approach to the game – and we like to share what’s on our mind, just in case it’s of interest….
Looking this morning at the 35 horses still holding a Thyestes entry, it is interesting to note that just one comes from this side of the Irish Sea – the Rebecca-Curtis-trained Racing Pulse….
Now he’s a horse that it’s fair to say has been disappointing over the last 12 months or so. He’s failed to finish in 4 of his last 6 races and he was beaten 23 lengths in another. And he’s now dropped right down the rankings to a mark of 131 – just a pound ahead of his last winning mark….
He’s only been seen once this term when 6th of 16 in a handicap at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. He ran off a mark of 136, got beaten 30 lengths and the official handicapper dropped him 5lbs on the evidence.
Now he’s a potential runner in at Gowran Park on Thursday. And he’s in the market at 33s. It’s a big price. We wonder what the horse is doing there. Our antenna is twitching….
Rebecca Curtis isn’t exactly lavish when it comes to sending runners into Irish races. We had a quick scoot through the form book and we find she’s sent just 25 horses over to Ireland since the start of 2012….
The winning strike-rate doesn’t set us salivating. Those 25 runners produced just 2 winners….
But here’s the rub. Ten of those 25 runners succeeded in making the first 3 on their Irish expedition. And they won, in the process, combined prize amounting to £120,000.
The bottom line is that Curtis often comes home with something for connections when she heads to Ireland. Her horses go there primed for an earning job.
Can Racing Pulse make use of his new low rating and earn a few quid for connections on Thursday? Can he hit the frame at a big price and make a few quid for contrarian punters too?
We’re thinking about it. We don’t know if he’s running for sure yet. But we’ve logged his presence in the list. And we’ll be keeping an eye on it. And maybe digging a bit deeper. Keep it under your hat for now.
That’s all from me for today.
I’ll back tomorrow afternoon with my picks for the Thyestes at Gowran park on Thursday afternoon.
Until then, stay tuned.
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