Wednesday, 25th January 2017
So, as it pans out, Rebecca Curtis and Racing Pulse don’t get to go in tomorrow’s Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park – which is a little disappointing….
I pointed out yesterday that Curtis has the happy knack of returning home with good prize money when sending her horses to Ireland. And the 8yo would have been an interesting contender at a big price.
Connections needed a couple more to come out. It wasn’t to be. There were just sufficient withdrawals to enable the favourite, The Crafty Butcher, to go to post.
But no matter. I’ll be keeping an eye on Racing Pulse. I’ve added his name to the nag me service I use so that I can keep an eye on entries Curtis makes for him in the weeks ahead.
We’ll never know what might have happened. But I suspect Curtis felt the horse was showing enough to go well and to justify a trip across the Irish sea. He has certainly dropped to an interesting mark.
We will wait and see what happens next….
Meanwhile, we must deal with the horses that do go to post for tomorrow’s midweek feature at Gowran Park….
Sometimes the market, or the layers, or a combination of both, produce a market where there’s not a great deal on obvious offer to the contrarian value hunter….
And that’s the case with tomorrow’s Thyestes market. All the horses that ring a bell or flash a light on my worksheet are up there towards the top of the betting. And a lot of those at bigger prices are pretty much where they deserve to be….
All things considered and taken together my pick at the prices is MONTYS MEADOW. I think the generally available 14s about James Joseph Mangan’s charge is a fair each-way price in a race where the bookies are paying out on the 4th place – and where some may go up with 5 places….
The 9yo fell at the first fence on his seasonal debut at Clonmel in early December, so we’ve only really seen the horse race once this term – and that was at Limerick at the end of last month.
He ran a cracker that day on heavy ground over a trip that will probably prove inadequate in time. He was beaten just a half-length on the day – running out runner-up in a field of 16.
He had no extra close to home and was headed late on, but it was effectively his first run of the season and he is entitled to come on for it tomorrow….
If we discount the Clonmel race where he fell, tomorrow will be just the second time the horse goes over 3 miles and beyond. And I’m expecting him to improve for the step-up. They’ve been talking about this horse being a staying chaser since he started over fences last year.
I think he’s nicely-weighted, liable to be fully match-fit, liable to improve and he’ll be suited by the ground. Given the shape of the market, he makes each-way appeal.
The Contrarian Bet Box….
To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….
In the Thyestes Handicap Chase (3.00 @ Gowran Park)....
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.
I’ll be back in your in-box tomorrow afternoon – ahead of the Thyestes Handicap Chase – when I’ll be continuing our preparatory work the Cheltenham Festival.
I’ll be taking an ahead-of-time look at the Stayers’ Hurdle – complete with a comprehensive profile of all the stats you can expect the winner to measure up to BEFORE the race is run and my take on the ante-post betting as it stands.
Until then. Stay tuned.