Tuesday, 2nd May 2017
George Bowen is fast-becoming a serial disappointment to punters….
Prior to Saturday’s 6f handicap at Ripon, the Richard-Fahey-trained 5-year-old had been a beaten favourite on six occasions….
He wasn’t the race favourite on Saturday. But he had been backed in from 12s – when I advised him on Friday afternoon – to 9/2 by the off.
I’m not foolish-enough to believe or suggest that my putting him up had any such effect on the price – because it didn’t.
His price contracted to that considerable degree because there was plenty of additional expectation behind him and plenty of money arriving from other quarters. Late-in-the-day money too – just prior to the off. And late money often proves more knowledgeable than the early stuff.
But, once again, the expectation led to nothing. George Bowen didn’t improve for his seasonal reappearance. He didn’t capitalize on his mark 90 – a mark that sits a pound below his last winning perch.
He never looked remotely like delivering. Truth be told, he showed very little at all.
At times like these – where a horse is on a losing streak stretching back some 15 runs to September 2015 – you might ask if there is something troubling the animal. Some physical injury or niggle that has gone undetected….
It’s always possible. Horses are not known for their eloquence. Few of them speak English. They tend to suffer in silence.
But that theory flies in the face of reports from the trainer. Only last week Richard Fahey said: ‘Every time we run him we fancy him. He’s a tricky one but on work at home he’d have a massive chance [on Saturday].’
The horse is clearly showing sufficient pizzazz on the gallops to suggest there’s nothing physical troubling him….
So, is it mental? He’s frequently fancied. He’s clearly producing at home. He’s ticking a lot of the right boxes to encourage connections. And the money keeps coming in the market. But, once at the track, the horse goes into a shell.
Has he fallen out of love with the game? Does he not like travelling to the track? Does he not like what he finds once he gets there? Does he not like to be away from the familiar surroundings of the yard? Does he not like to be in and amongst unfamiliar horses?
It would take a smarter and better man than me to answer those questions. I wouldn’t have the first clue. But an independent observer might conclude that there is something for Fahey and his team to get to the bottom of and work on.
Either that or you might put this latest disappointment down to the Fahey yard running into an out-of-sorts period over the weekend. Prior to Tuesday afternoon racing, Fahey had produced 32 beaten horses on the bounce.
Fair enough, the yard might not quite be firing on all four cylinders. But that hasn’t been the case every time George Bowen has been turned over at a short-price….
Whatever the problem, you can be sure connections believe it is worth the effort and expense required to find the solution….
It isn’t as if we’re talking about a dud. Or a mediocre operator. This horse was good – with the ability and the potential to earn some good money.
It wasn’t a run-of-the-mill race he won back in September 2015 when he was rated 91 – a pound above where he was on Saturday. It was a big race at the Curragh worth £70k to his connections.
Okay, he was 3-years-old then – and he was entitled to be improving leaps and bounds at that time of the year. Next time out he was runner-up in the Silver Cup at Ayr. That autumn, this was very much a horse on the move. He’d gone from a mark of 85 to 100 and the potential existed for more progression still.
Nobody would have been pulling up the stumps. Nobody was thinking the job was done. More would have been anticipated. Fahey was talking about future targets. But between then and now the horse has failed to win again.
He’s put in some decent runs and gone close. But he hasn’t won. The blinkers have been tried. But they didn’t work. He hasn’t earnt much money – not for connections or punters. And he’s been tumbling down the ratings….
Mr. Fahey has often said that you must keep running your horses to get them down the handicap.
That’s a fact of life. If you think your horse is too high in the list, there’s nothing going to get him down to where you think he should be other than running him, watching him get beaten and waiting for the official handicapper to react….
And back at the start of April, Fahey was making those kinds of noises. He told reporters this….
‘[He] needs a bit of help from the handicapper and we had no excuses at Doncaster last time. He was very fit and very well but was slowly away and never a factor. We might try to step him up to seven furlongs to see if that helps as he was working particularly well ahead of his reappearance.’
On Saturday George Bowen had been beaten enough times to be 10lb below his career-best rating and a pound below his last winning rating.
When the handicapper reassesses again, later this week, George Bowen could be down to a mark in the high 80s. He was beaten far enough on Saturday to justify that.
I wonder whether that will represent sufficient ‘help’ from the handicapper or whether more assistance yet will be required to get the horse to exactly the point where Mr. Fahey believes will be most helpful….
That is the conundrum for punters in this instance. It’s a timing issue. A case of if-not-now-then-when?
There’s only one thing you can be sure of: the ever-decreasing mark will be taken advantage of at some point. And for good money. This horse probably owes connections a bit.
Once Mr. Fahey rediscovers the key to his horse, connections will get the pay-day they have patiently waited for. And I reckon Mr. Fahey is much more likely to rediscover that lost key once his horse is on 88 than he was when the horse was on 98, for instance.
Don’t ask me why or how I know these things. It’s just how these things work….
When that late money showed-up on Saturday, I thought I might have got the timing right. But it will be another day. It’s a situation worth monitoring. A day worth waiting for. You heard it here first.
That’s all from me for today.
I’ll be back tomorrow. Be sure to check in. I’ll be including a link in tomorrow’s column that will enable you to get your hands on something you’ll find useful this weekend and across the next few months – some big race pointers extracted from the historic record.
Until then. Stay tuned.
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
