Wednesday, 3rd May 2017
I’ll start today by following on from yesterday and my thoughts on George Bowen. If you missed those, you can catch up here….
The official handicapper has reacted to Saturday’s performance at Ripon and, as expected, dropped the horse again – from 90 to 88.
Every little helps. And this revised mark will only make it more likely that Richard Fahey rediscovers the key to his 5yo and produces him to win for the first time since September 2015.
I reiterate my point from yesterday. This is a situation worth monitoring. George Bowen is a winner waiting to happen.
At some point connections will capitalise on a mark that has fallen from a high of 100 in October 2015 to one of 88 today….
I am blessed with knowledgeable readers – proper punters who don’t just sit passively waiting to be spoon-fed tips but instead go out on manoeuvres seeking out their own value-bet situations….
Take JR, for instance, who got in touch yesterday via email and adds a little pepper to the pot….
He’s been onto George Bowen for a while – beating me to the punch by some considerable distance. He has this to say….
‘The key to George Bowen is Soft Ground. The horse has only raced on yielding/soft ground 3 times which produced a win, second and beaten just over 2L in a race worth 66K!! I believe if he gets those conditions in any of the sprint handicaps he will dot up and I believe he could end up an Ayr Silver/Gold Cup Horse.’
That’s a fair assessment. One I can’t argue with. And we can add JR’s observations to our notes.
I thank JR for taking the time to write-in and for sharing. Like I said, I’m blessed with the right kind of knowledgeable readers.
Whilst we are covering the subject of Richard Fahey and his team handicappers, I should draw your attention to another potential winning situation waiting to happen….
Keep your eye on Eastern Impact as the season progresses….
After wins in a couple of decent handicaps on the Newmarket tracks in 2014 as a 3yo, this son of Bahamian Bounty entered the 2015 season on a mark of 104.
He promptly won another big-field handicap on seasonal debut and the handicapper raised him to 109 – a mark that pretty much excluded him from the handicap sphere….
But the 4yo wasn’t finished yet. In July that year, he turned out to run in the G1 July Cup – again at Newmarket.
He wasn’t fancied. The market sent him off at 50s. But he outran that assessment by a big margin and finished third – beaten just 1.25 lengths by the very-classy Muhaarar. And up he went to a career-high mark of 113.
He did manage to win again that autumn – in a level-weights G3 at Ascot off a mark of 112. But there have been no victories in his 11 subsequent races.
That losing sequence has seen the 6yo drop to a mark of 102. He’s starting to look interesting again for handicaps.
He wasn’t quite good enough to cut the mustard at the top end of the sprint game. But back amongst handicappers he can prove competitive and he can get back to winning ways.
He’s 2lbs below his last winning mark. And he’s already had a blow on the all-weather in March – staying on nicely at the end. He could go in a 6f handicap at Newmarket on Sunday. He still has an entry as of this morning.
It will be his first big-field handicap on turf in Britain since his last big-field win back in 2015. And he’s weighted to go well.
Whether he does or he doesn’t, he’s worth adding to your tracker – because he is going in at some point and hopefully at a nice price….
2016 was a nothing year for the horse. But 2017 looks set to be much more productive for connections and for punters.
In handicaps, it is all about the mark. And right now, Eastern Impact’s mark is looking righter than it has for a while. It might need to drop a bit more yet. We will see. But it’s a situation worth monitoring….
Handicaps are one thing. Conditions races are something else. I tend to think of them as two separate games within one sport – with certain horses crossing codes from time to time. A bit like 20/20 and test matches in the cricket….
90% of the time my attention is solely focused on the handicaps. The other 10% is focused on the big conditions races that every racing fan is interested in.
Like the 2000 Guineas and the 1000 Guineas taking place at Newmarket this weekend, for example….
Finding bets in big conditions races is different to big handicaps. At least for me. The stats play a bigger part….
Specific types of horses repeatedly win the biggest G1 races. They share certain characteristics and credentials…. They have similar qualifications….
They’ve achieved similar things and met similar yardsticks…. Their careers have been constructed around common themes…. Their respective campaigns have similar and consistent features….
They meet the same broad criterion. They tick the same boxes. They measure up similarly to a wider statistical profile….
I call it the Winning Profile. And I’ve put together Winning Profiles for NINE of the biggest G1 races scheduled to be run on the turf this summer. You might find it useful for this weekend and as the season progresses.
Download your Winning Profiles right here….
It is 60-years ago this weekend that Lester Piggott registered the first of his five wins in the 2000 Guineas – onboard Crepello….
It was before my time. But I suspect we might have one or two readers who recollect the race. I’d be delighted to hear from you if you do….
Meantime, this interview with Piggott – recorded to commemorate that first win – is worth a watch….
That’s all from me for today. Stay tuned for more contrarian big-race insight & analysis tomorrow.
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