Where my contrarian money is going tomorrow....

Last Updated: 21.07.2017

Friday, 21st July 2017

Where my contrarian money is going tomorrow….

Plenty of punters would probably take steps to avoid tomorrow’s Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes at Newbury (3.35) – especially if they were in a bit of a flat spell….

A field of 25 juveniles racing up a 5f strip – with relatively little in the book and everything progressing in unknowable and immeasurable leaps and bounds – would encourage most punters to look for something a trifle easier….

Fair enough. But I’m not one for taking the easy way out. My radar might not have been perfectly tuned in recent weeks, but I back myself and my methods to come good….

And the races which are hard for the layers and the wider market are exactly the races I want to be looking it. Those are the kinds of races where mistakes can be made. Mistakes that present us with value betting opportunities….

  • I expect this one to show-up an improved horse….

Only two horses in the last 25 years have won this race carrying more than 9-00. And horses coming into the race off the back of a single run don’t win it too often either. And all the winners over the last decade had already won over the minimum trip….

Okay, fair enough. But stats are merely stats. They do not represent a code that can be ‘broken’ so that the ‘winner’ is revealed to us ahead of time. They are just a record of what has gone before. I am mindful of the stats but I prefer not to be entirely driven by them….

I prefer to take a case-by-case view of things. In this case I’m going with SNAZZY JAZZY at 12s.

Clive Cox’s colt has only raced once – winning over 6f at Goodwood – and he carries topweight of 9-01 tomorrow thanks to his 65,000-euro price tag at auction….

In one respect, it’s a positive that he cost that much. Had he been much cheaper then he might not have had the services of Adam Kirby in the saddle tomorrow. 9-00 is just about his limit….

It’s hard to know what the plan has been with this horse. But it’s interesting that he shows up here off the back of just that one run at Goodwood. He’s had almost two-months to recover from that – as well as to improve at home away from the public gaze.

The bare form of the Goodwood race is hard to pin down. It might not be that great. But the performance was promising and I expect a better horse to show-up tomorrow. He’s a half-brother to a G3 winner in France over 5.5f – so the potential is there….

And he’s with the right yard. Clive Cox is a dab hand with sprinters. He showed it again with Harry Angel last week. Heartache is another sprinter to emerge for him this term. Snazzy Jazzy is another interesting young horse from the Cox yard and he’s the one I want to be with.

Place terms of 1/5 1-2-3 make no appeal. So, I’ll be going in win only.

  • The Hannon horse in the Hackwood….

A little earlier on the Newbury card they go to post for the G3 Hackwood Stakes over the 6f trip – and I want to be with Richard Hannon’s TUPI at 9s….

I thought he ran a cracker in the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Ascot in June despite an interrupted passage. He wasn’t out-of-touch with the top boys in the division and his performance suggests that whilst he might be short of genuine G1 class, he can certainly land a G3….

I note that Ryan Moore is up. He might well have been on Raucous for William Haggas but chooses the Hannon horse instead. That’s a small clue….

The latter is being targeted again at the Stewards Cup. It might be more of a going day for the Hannon horse than the Haggas horse tomorrow.

Tupi won a Listed event at Doncaster on ground with cut on the opening day of the season. The ground might just have come right for him tomorrow.

Place terms of 1/5 1-2-3 don’t light my fire. I’m going in win only.

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….

In the Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes (3.35 @ Newbury)....

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – SNAZZY JAZZY (12s generally)

In the Hackwood Stakes (3.00 @ Newbury)....

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – TUPI (9s generally)

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for today.

I’ll be back in your inbox a little later with ATC Extra….

Until then. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd