Where my contrarian money is going tomorrow....

Last Updated: 01.09.2017

Friday, 1st September 2017

Where my contrarian money is going tomorrow….

I’m not sure where Paul Midgley bought the wings that he’s attached to DESERT LAW recently, but they have certainly worked the trick. He’s really firing right now….

A win in a handicap at Doncaster on the 17th August off a mark of 87 was followed up by another win at York 4 days later under a 6lb penalty and the 9yo is clearly flying right now….

Tomorrow’s assignment in the Listed-class Bullet Sprint Stakes up at Beverley (3.15) represents a rise in class. This will be a more difficult assignment. On face value, at the weights, he has something to find with a few of his opponents, but he’s showing up with the fires smouldering and I think he’s worth a bet at this morning’s 14s.

Plenty of those that are shorter in the betting haven’t been at their very best of late. Well-being and a sharp cutting edge for the job in hand are important attributes in a sprint race. and Desert Law is the one that turns up with those attributes in spades.

He’s no flash-in-the-pan for the yard. Midgley has his string in fine fettle – producing 8 winners from 25 runners over the last fortnight. There’s every chance that Desert Law can go on again whilst the sun shines so strongly.

Midgley has three in the race. Paul Mulrennan had the pick of the crop and it is surely significant that he opted for Desert Law over Final Venture – one the market likes more. 

Desert Law has a nice berth in stall 6 and I expect him to run a much bigger race than this morning’s price suggests. On that basis, he’s a bet.

I’m not bothered about playing for the place money at the terms and the price. I’ll be backing him win only.

  • Up at Chester….

A little earlier up at Chester in the corbettsports.com Handicap (2.45) Andrew Balding’s INTRANSIGENT looks to be underestimated at 10s with Betfair Sportsbook and 9s with bet365.

He’s had a quiet season, doing nothing since May until appearing on the all-weather 11 days ago at Kempton. Whatever was ailing him seems to be behind him now. He produced a run that signalled he’s back in the groove.

On that basis, a mark of 91 is very interesting tomorrow. I expect him to be able to do business from that perch over a turning 7f at a track where he’s produced decent performances off similar marks in the past.
It’s some time since he produced a win on turf – back in 2014 at Ascot off 104. But in the meanwhile, he’s been as high as 110. And it was only 6 turf runs back that he was rated 100.

I don’t expect him to scale those heights to 110 again as an 8yo, but a mark of just 91 surely gives a horse who looks like he’s returning to form a solid chance of breaking that losing sequence.

He runs out of stall 3 and that’s a nice berth to start from around the Chester turns. And good ground will be no inconvenience to him. He’s a nice price for value seekers.

I’m not minded playing for the place money with him. I’ll be backing him win only.

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon....

In the Bullet Sprint Stakes (3.15 @ Beverley)....

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – DESERT LAW (14s generally)

In the corbettsports.com Handicap (2.45 @ Chester)....

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for now….

I’ll be back a little today with ATC Extra….

Until then. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd