Friday, 27th October 2017
The flat season rumbles on for a couple of weeks yet and Doncaster hosts a couple of decent handicaps this afternoon and tomorrow....
It isn’t often we target a race on Friday afternoon, but we go where the action is and the Racing Post/SIS Betting Shop Manager Handicap (3.35) is a good target offering value in the shape of Bryan Smart’s RED PIKE who seems over-priced at this morning’s general 20s.
He’s not won for a while now, but he has been going well this summer – producing decent performances in defeat at Ripon (twice) and Thirsk off similar marks to tomorrow’s 92.
He’s a course and distance winner at Doncaster and he shows up off the back of a break which should have served to freshen him up for a tilt at some end-of-season glory. And he gets the good ground he needs to be at his best.
There are plenty in with chances in this afternoon’s contest. The market has found the majority. Red Pike is the one I think the market is underestimating at the price and he makes for a decent enough each-way bet.
In tomorrow’s Sun Bets Responsible Gambling Handicap (4.00) it is the old boy CONFESSIOINAL who seems to be slight over-looked at the prices. He’s 22s with William Hill and 20s generally.
He’s 10-years-old now but he’s still running with plenty of verve and vigour. He showed that the old fires still burn brightly enough at Catterick where he hit the frame and he’s produced several decent efforts in defeat during the second half of the summer....
He’s been campaigned in this race five times previously and has never managed to win it – and the prices tell us the market expects him to fall short again.
But the old boy is running better than quite a few of these and it is worth bearing in mind that the winner only had a length on him in last season’s edition.
He ran off 92 then. He goes off 86 this time round. He’s never run off a mark that low in this race and the way he’s going he’s more competitive than the prices suggest. He’s an each-way bet for me at this morning’s quotes.
The Contrarian Bet Box….
To recap on where my contrarian money will be going this weekend….
In the Racing Post/SIS Betting Shop Manager Handicap (3.35 @ Doncaster)....
In the Sun Bets Responsible Gambling Handicap (4.00 @ Doncaster)....
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.
That’s all from me for today.
I’ll be back later today with ATC Extra....
Until then. Stay tuned.