Wednesday, 8th November 2017
Another 2nd at the weekend with Limited Reserve finding one too good in the William Hill Hurdle at Ascot. If I had a pound for every time....
And while the aim is always to win – with every bet placed – it would be churlish to say I was disappointed with Nakeeta’s run in yesterday morning’s Melbourne Cup at Flemington....
It wasn’t as good as I hoped or required for betting purposes. But the 5th-placed was good enough on its own terms in such a competitive race.
Connections will be happy with a performance good enough to land 6-figure prize-money. And the horse has put Iain Jardine well and truly on the map....
That’s two years on the bounce that Ebor form has translated strongly to the Australian race. Heartbreak City won the York race and finished 2nd in Australia last term....
What price that ‘Will he go for the Melbourne Cup?’ is the first question launched at connections of next year’s Ebor winner?
One thing about racing: it doesn’t give you much time to mope about licking your wounds. Like a river in flood, the game moves you ever onwards. It is one of its charms....
Well-handicapped horses are a good part of my meat and drink. I seek them out at every turn. One horse I’d like to draw your attention to his morning is Fergal O’Brien’s Master Dee....
He had been entered to run in last Saturday’s Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot – before being pulled-out at the overnight stage.
It would have been 8yo’s first crack at the 3-mile trip. And given that he was a 3-mile winner over hurdles, it is reasonable to expect him to improve for the step up over the bigger obstacles....
But what had really caught my eye about him ahead of last Saturday was that he had won at the Ascot meeting the previous year – on decent ground.
It was only a small-field 2m3f novice handicap chase he won that day. But Master Dee and the 2nd horse finished a good 30-lengths ahead of the others.
And that 2nd horse was the Paul Nicholls-trained San Benedeto. Master Dee on 139 was giving the Nicholls-horse 2lb and beat him just under a length.
Since then, of course, San Benedeto has excelled – albeit after dropping back to the minimum trip – and catapulted up the weights.
A sequence of 4 straight wins between February and April this year saw him raise to a mark of 150. He ran in yesterday’s Haldon Gold Cup over 2m2fat Exeter off a mark of 155 – and he found only one too good.
He’s a decent and consistent horse who will be expected to be competitive and earn good prize money in top handicaps and grade races this term....
Meanwhile, Master Dee has raced just 3 times since that Ascot win and a current chase mark of 144 looks very workable – especially if he improves, as I expect, for a step-up to 3-miles.
O’Brien’s horse is up to winning something decent. And he might well be off-the-radar and underrated. And he’s going onto my Watch List....
He could be out at the weekend at Wincanton. He’s also got an entry in the Bet Victor Gold Cup at Cheltenham later this month. Mr. O’Brien gives the impression he’s got his eye on a serious pay day....
Racing is an unforgiving game – for all concerned....
For tipsters who aren’t quite hitting it out of the middle of the bat. Trainers whose horses just won’t fire. Jockeys who can’t get horses to run for them. And horses that aren’t given time to breath before being written off in the press....
According to press reports yesterday, Minella Rocco – 2nd behind Sizing John in last season’s Gold Cup at Cheltenham – is bidding to get his season ‘back on track’ after getting beaten when sent off favourite in last month’s Irish Daily Star Chase at Punchestown....
Did his season ever really go off-track?
Yes, he was placed very nicely in Ireland by trainer Jonjo O’Neill – getting weight all round. But the horse needs a test – and he was never likely to get it in a 7-runner event over 3m1f.
And he’s a horse that that has needed his seasonal reappearance in each of the previous two years. The year previous he’d started in a handicap at Cheltenham on a mark of 155 that looks generous in hindsight (he’s now rated 166) and managed to get himself beaten....
Maybe the truth of it is that that the market had it wrong and he shouldn’t have been favourite in Ireland....
Outlander got beaten in that Punchestown race. Minella Rocco was beaten 10-lengths. Outlander got smashed. But that didn’t stop him coming out and winning the G1 JNwine.con Champion Chase at Down Royal on Sunday....
Minella Rocco hasn’t veered too far off the track. He’s been beaten in a contest that didn’t suit early-doors – and one which he probably needed. No more. No less.
The racing jamboree ups-sticks to Wincanton on Saturday for Badger Chase Day....
We always like to consult the stats for pointers and guides – and what the historic record reveals is that Paul Nicholls has made this West-country meeting his own over the last decade....
His last 78 runners at the meeting have produced 26 winners. To put that figure into perspective: David Pipe, Nicky Henderson and Philip Hobbs are the next-best performers with four wins apiece over the same period.
I think they call it dominance. And if you were looking for ‘recreational’ bets at Wincanton on Saturday then rolling Nicholls-trained selections up in multiples or placepots would represent an obvious low-risk/high-reward option....
If you’re looking for the sweet spot in the stats, then runners in the non-handicap chase and hurdle evets stand out – the last 20 qualifiers produced 11 wins between them. But most went off short and you won’t be getting rich.
Personally, I’d take my chances with the Nicholls-horses in the two handicap chase events. The last 25 qualifiers produced 6 wins and 7 places. Profits aren’t massive. But backing all qualifiers each-way you’d be 17.5 points to the good.
Going against the grain, Alan King’s last 35 runners at the meeting produced just one win between them. The man from Wiltshire will feel like he is ‘due’....
That’s all from me for today.
I’ll be back tomorrow.
Until then. Stay tuned.
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