Where my contrarian money is going tomorrow....

Last Updated: 22.12.2017

Friday, 22nd December 2017

Where my contrarian money is going tomorrow….

I like CAID DU LIN each-way at 22s for tomorrow’s G3 Racing Welfare Handicap Hurdle at Ascot (3.35).

He’s one of three horses running in tomorrow’s race that ran in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle over course and distance back at the start of November (the other two are Elgin and Verdana Blue)

That’s a race that’s produced plenty of subsequent winners and seen the first five home hoisted up the rankings to an aggregate tune of 42lbs....

Dr Richard Newlands’s horse finished 7th that day – beaten 10-lengths. But he’s improved for his two races since and I liked the way he travelled last time at Sandown.

He got over-hauled late on by A Hare’s Breath – with the two pulling a little way clear of the rest – having looked the winner at one point.

He travelled into the race so well that he found himself in front two out and I wonder if that played out to the advantage of the other horse – he was there to be shot at and he got worn down....

He bumped into a well-prepared and well-handicapped horse on the day and has gone up 5lbs for the defeat. That’s a blow to connections but the horse travelled well within himself at Sandown and I think there could me more to come.

He’s a nice price for a young horse on the upgrade and running well....

  • A lot to like about this horse at 10s....

ON TOUR had been well out the back on the first circuit at Newbury last time over 2m6f....

But he loomed up very sweetly under Mitchell Bastyan on the home turn and was travelling like he might cut the front horses down when he unseated his rider three fences from home....

Horse and rider can make amends tomorrow in the Lavazza Silver Cup Handicap Chase at Ascot (3.00) – which will be the 9yo’s first go at 3-miles over fences....

I think it will suit. At Newbury it looked like things were happening just a bit too quick over 2m6f and the time before, when he won at Aintree over 2m4f, he was doing all his best work and asserting late on when stamina came into play....

He’s up to 140 in the ratings now but judged on the best of his form there’s still some margin to work with. And he ran off 140 at Newbury last time – when it certainly didn’t look like it was stopping him.

Soft ground won’t bother this horse. The trip should improve him. And, all things taken together, there’s a lot to like about the general 10s.

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….

In the Racing Welfare Handicap Hurdle (3.35 @ Ascot)....

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – CAID DU LIN each-way (22s generally)

In the Lavazza Silver Cup Handicap Chase (3.00 @ Ascot)....

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – ON TOUR (10s generally)

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for now.

I’ll be back in your inbox a little later today with ATC Extra....

Over Christmas I’ll be covering the Welsh Grand National on Wednesday 27th December. Expect me in your inbox on the morning of the race....

Have a good one.

Until next time. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd