The contrarian word on the weekend action....

Last Updated: 06.04.2018

Friday, 6th April 2018

The contrarian word on the weekend action….

Kelso enjoys a rare day in the spotlight tomorrow – with a card boasting two big televised handicaps....

The Liz Adam Memorial Handicap Chase at 3.00 sees a field of 10 go at it over the 3m2f trip and 19 fences on ground described this afternoon as heavy....

The bookies are playing it cautiously – making the top 3 in the weights the top 3 in the betting and all at 5s or shorter....

The one that looks like a nice bet at the prices to me is LAKE VIEW LAD at 10s....

The ground will certainly suit him tomorrow and he’s produced a nice sequence of runs this term....

Back in February at Haydock over 2m4f he beat Crievehill a short head – giving him 7lbs. That one is now rated 139 and I’d expect Lake View Lad to be competitive in tomorrow’s race off that same mark – 139. I think he’s handily-treated....

I’m also mindful that his trainer, Nick Alexander, has been saying that trips around 2m4f are the absolute minimum for the 8yo. He steps up to the 3m2f trip for the first time tomorrow and I expect to see improvement for it.

  • Last But Not Least....

A little later at 3.35 in the Edinburgh Gin Handicap Hurdle the in-form Donald McCain returns the mare LASTBUTNOTLEAST to hurdles – a division in which she is 3 wins from 3 runs – and she’s well worth a bet at the 8s....

She looked decent over fences when winning at Haydock in December but flopped when sent off at a short price next time out at Leicester....

I can draw a line under that performance. She’d had a hard race at Haydock, the Leicester race came too quickly afterwards, and she twisted a shoe to boot....

Having had a break and shifting back to hurdles, she can outrun her odds tomorrow afternoon. The ground will certainly suit, so too the 3-mile trip and Donald McCain is going better than a lot of the opposition at the moment.

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….

In the Liz Adam Memorial Handicap Chase (3.00 @ Kelso)....

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – LAKE VIEW LAD (10s generally)

In the Edinburgh Gin Handicap Hurdle (3.35 @ Kelso)....

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – LASTBUTNOTLEAST (8s generally)

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for today.

No ATC Extra this week....

I’ll be back in your inbox on Monday....

Until then. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd