Friday, 20th April 2018
When THE YOUNG MASTER won the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown two-years-ago, it was considered a stepping-stone performance towards the following year’s Grand National....
Things haven’t gone to plan since. The horse fell in the following season’s Aintree showpiece and the horse hasn’t managed to win since....
You might make the case that the 9yo is on the downgrade. But I’m not so sure and I think he’s worth a bet at 20s in tomorrow afternoon’s Scottish Grand National at Ayr (4.05).
Following a wind-op this horse was sent to Cheltenham in March for a tilt at the Kim Muir – and there were signs of renewed, albeit late in the day....
On the second circuit, when the horses on the front end turned up the heat, Neil Mulholland’s charge lost his place – dropping back into the second half of the field....
He couldn’t win from where he was, but rider Sam Whaley-Cohen did not give the horse an easy time and the horse stuck on – passing runners going up the hill and finishing 6th. This on soft ground that would not have been ideal for him.
He gave every impression of a horse who needs a real trip. He gets that tomorrow. He gets much-needed better ground too. And he isn’t carrying much weight....
Following his big win at Sandown in 2016, the horse hit a career-high rating of 150. Tomorrow afternoon, he’s all the way down to 132....
He’s fallen down the rankings for a reason. No denying that. But the finishing effort at Cheltenham last month suggested the wind-op has helped. If that’s the case, tomorrow’s mark could severely under-estimate the horse....
I want winners and am not too fussy about place money so I’m going to go two-against-the-field – backing both win only....
My second-selection is HENRI PARRY MORGAN – also at 20s – another horse who might just be re-flowering at just the right time....
He was rated as high as 150 over fences back in the day. I think I put him up for the 2016 edition of the Hennessy Gold Cup – such was the nature of his promise at the time....
But it was downhill for a long way from there. He got beaten at Newbury and in 10 subsequent chases starts before scoring at Ffos Las at the start of the month – more than two-years since his last win....
The step-up to 3m4f that day appeared to suit – and the way he stayed on suggests the step-up to 4-mile will suit just as well....
The application of blinkers for the first time – in combination with a tongue-tie – certainly didn’t do any harm and will be used again tomorrow....
And after the race trainer Peter Bowen told reporters the result was entirely unexpected because the horse had come to life back at home....
Like The Young Master, Henri Parry Morgan didn’t get into the Grand National last weekend. This is Plan B. But I note that Bowen was talking about this race as a target for the horse two years ago – and hoping for half-decent ground....
If the horse is still bucking and kicking at home, the old plan could come to fruition tomorrow – a bit later than expected but better late than never.
A mark of 139 is eminently workable if Bowen has this horse back. He’s a decent price for us at 20s....
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The Contrarian Bet Box…. To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Scottish Grand National (4.05 @ Ayr).... That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today.
Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing....
I’ll be back in your inbox a little later today with ATC Extra – we’ll be targeting the Spring Cup on the flat at Newbury....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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