Friday, 27th April 2018
I put Neil Mulholland’s THE YOUNG MASTER up for the Scottish Grand National last weekend, but he was out of the race before it even got started – departing at the first fence....
The fall didn’t appear to bother him too much. He got up, dusted himself down and went on to complete the two-circuits of the course minus his rider. I guess it’s one way of getting fit....
He should be better for that spin round – without any weight on his back – and the fall could well turn out to be a blessing in disguise....
I’ve got no qualms about putting him again for tomorrow’s bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown (3.35) – a race he won back in 2016 off a mark of 148....
At Cheltenham in the Kim Muir – his first run back since having a wind-op – the 9yo finished strong having been outpaced at one point....
It was a performance that appeared to draw a line under a disappointing period for the horse and connections. He gave the impression of a horse returning to form. He gave the impression of a horse that could now be very dangerously handicapped....
I his pomp he was rated as high as 151. Tomorrow he goes off an effective mark of 135. He’s 3lbs out of the handicap but that’s an irrelevance. Chances are he’s a whole lot better than his official mark of 132 says he is....
The price tomorrow – 12s – isn’t what it was for the Scottish Grand National. But I still want to be with him. This horse is likely miles better than his mark and it gives him every chance....
We know he stays the trip. We know he will appreciate the good ground. We know he’s breathing better now he’s had a wind-op – the problem probably being the root cause of poor form that led to his mark deteriorating as it has. And we know he’s likely to be a sight fitter for his last outings....
Neil Mulholland reckons his charge has a ‘very good chance’. I think the same.
The 12s doesn’t represent an each-way price for me. I’m going to do my default thing and go two-against-the-field – backing both to win and foregoing the chance to play for place money....
Nicky Henderson will be presented with the Trainers’ Championship title tomorrow afternoon at Sandown and I’m of the mind that SUGAR BARON also stands a strong chance of delivering what would be a third bet365 Gold Cup trophy for his handler....
He was only beaten 2.5 lengths in the race last year as a 7yo. He travelled strongly under Nico De Boinville that day – just getting swamped in a blanket finish at the death....
With another year on his back and racing off just a 3lb higher mark he can improve on that effort this time around and the 12s is a fair enough price....
Admittedly, he ran no kind of race at Cheltenham in the Kim Muir last time – making a load of mistakes. The ground might have been softer than ideal, and he had a first-time rider onboard for the assignment. Maybe he just had an off day. It was his first run back off a break and I can forgive that effort.
But tomorrow’s track and trip really seem to suit this horse – and it would be no surprise to see the horse bounce back.
In addition to a decent effort in last season’s renewal, he ran another good race in the London National in December – getting touched off by Benbens after arriving on the scene form the back just a little too late....
He’s not been made too much use of this season and might well have been targeted at this race. He’s clearly not entirely straightforward. But De Boinville is back in the hot seat and the horse has shown enough at the venue to suggest he can do the business there off a mark of 137 on a decent-enough surface.
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the bet365 Gold Cup (3.35 @ Sandown).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now.
I’ll be back in your inbox a little today with ATC Extra....
Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing this weekend....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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