Monday, 21st May 2018
I imagine some of you are scratching your heads and wondering what that big word means?
Tut! I really do worry about how some of you choose to spend your time....
For those of you who don’t read arcane literature, hexakosioihexekontahexaphobia is the fear of the number 666 – the Number of the Beast according to the Bible....
What’s that got to do with horse racing?
Nothing. Nothing whatsoever....
I just want to make the point that, when it comes to betting in big-field handicaps, there’s a number that’s even more terrifying and depressing than the Number of the Beast...
That’s the number 2....
Two is the truly diabolical number in the universe for value-seeking big-field handicap punters like us....
Two is the number that makes you feel like every demon in hell is working his power against you....
Two is the number that can bring you to your knees in fits of despair and misery....
Two is the pits. Two is almost the worst of all possible results. Two is nearly but not quite....
Sometimes two feels a bit like the powers that be are taking the proverbial Michael out of you....
My friend, if you plan to back horses at prices in the big handicaps, don’t waste time fretting about hexakosioihexekontahexaphobia....
Worry more about the number two instead....
Nobody needs spend too long on the ATC service to realize that we are not in the slightest bit concerned with winning strike-rates....
We don’t claim to have big winning strike rates....
We don’t expect big winning strike rates....
We don’t even take the trouble to aim for big winning strike rates....
We know our game. We know how the game works. We know that the way we play is always going to lead to more losers than winners over the long term....
And not just a few more losers than winners....
But many more losers than winners. Loads more....
The column of losers will always and inevitably dwarf the column of winners we produce....
But we’re comfortable with that. That’s no more or no less than we anticipate and expect....
Like I said, we know our game....
If we were concerned about the volume of winners and overall strike rates, we would bet the favourite in every race that comes along....
Guaranteeing ourselves a solid strike rate somewhere between 30% and 40% in the process....
But we’re not concerned about volume of winners and strike rate....
Instead we are concerned with profit. Long-term profit. And backing plenty of losers is part and parcel of that game....
We don’t look for winners. Instead we seek out competitive horses trading at the wrong price. We let the winners look after themselves and we expect them to come along at their own accord....
We figure that if we do our job properly, and we find enough of the right horses at the wrong prices, we will back sufficient winners at sufficiently good prices to get ourselves in front of the game over the long term....
But make no mistake. We still need those winners....
We cannot do without them. We don’t focus on them, but they remain a key component of our overall plan....
The winners serve to cancel out the many losing bets and add good strides to the overall bottom line over time....
The winners at prices must come at some point. At some point, the value price and the winning horse must coincide....
We expect and accept plenty of losers. But there must be occasions – as many as we can manage – where the whole thing (price and winner) comes together....
With that in mind, there is one horse that is particularly hard to take.... hard to stomach.... hard to accept.... hard to get over....
That’s the horse at a price that does pretty much all we expect of it – but manages to find one too good on the day....
I’m talking about horse that finishes second. The horse that takes the number two spot in the race results. The horse that finishes runner-up. The nearly-but-not-quite horse. The horse that means you fail at the value game by the narrowest margin possible – one place....
That’s what I mean about the diabolically cruel nature of the number two....
Here at ATC we do seem cursed with experiencing more than our fair share of these diabolical outcomes....
The last few weeks provide more than enough evidence to support this point of view....
Wolf Of Windlesham – available at 20s on the Friday evening ahead of the bet365 Handicap Hurdle at Sandown – found one too good on the day....
Fun Mac – advised at 16s ahead of the Chester Cup – was run down in the straight and beaten home by just one opponent....
Then at York last week, Banditry – advised at 12s for the Equinity Technology Handicap – also managed to find one too good to beat him home....
Just one of these finding a couple more lengths or enjoying a bit more luck-in-running would have made a a big difference to short-term bottom line results....
Two of them managing to go just one place better would have made an incredible difference. We’d all be clicking our heels and thinking we’ve got this big-field handicap game figured out....
But all of them managing to get beaten by one horse is little better than all of them finishing last....
The bottom-line outcome is the same – losing bets. Losing bets on the narrowest margin. But losing bets all the same....
Never mind hexakosioihexekontahexaphobia. Leave that to the folk who are worried about the devil....
My big concern right now is dyophobia – the fear of the number two. That’s what I think I’m beginning to suffer from....
There’s nothing worse in this game than being almost right – but not quite right enough. It’s not good for the heart....
Of course, I don’t let these things trouble me. Racing is racing – it’s designed to be a constant source of frustration and perplexity....
Over time, you learn to take these frustrating outcomes in your stride. I just wish there weren’t so many and so frequent such frustrations to deal with....
But there is a positive to take out of all this gloom. Our methods are not far wide of the mark. We aren’t finding clunker after clunker after clunker. We are finding plenty of ‘live’ horses running competitive races at prices the market has got wrong....
That’s what we set out to do. And we’re not making too bad a job of it....
We will accept not quite getting the rub of the green. We will stick to our guns. We will stick to our game plan. And it won’t be long before another one of ours does the business at a price and beats somebody else’s horse into second place....
You can rely on it. Just don’t discount the possibility of more near misses in the meantime....
That’s all from me for today.
I’ll be back tomorrow.
Until then. Stay tuned.
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