Thursday, 26th July 2018
I wonder if we sometimes over-complicate the racing game….
You can analyze things to death – pulling the bones apart until sense can no longer be made of the whole….
I wonder if sometimes we try too hard. If the analytic process sometimes leaves us knowing less than when we set out….
Especially with the big handicaps. Big-fields of 20-odd runners take hours to scrutinize. When you’re done, you can often still make an argument for fifteen….
Maybe there’s a case for going counter-intuitive and seeking to do better by thinking less….
It’s a line of approach I touch on from time to time….
I wonder if locating betting value really must be the complex and demanding exercise everybody assumes….
I wonder if there aren’t simple, straight-forward and painless routes to handicap profit that stare us in the face sometimes….
Routes we ignore because they don’t appear complicated enough. Because they seem too good or too simple to be true….
I’m talking about adopting Keep-It-Simple-Stupid (KISS) strategies and sticking with them over time….
We could stick with the tried and tested route here....
We could opt for the obvious....
We could tell you that backing Mark Johnston’s handicappers is the way to go at the Glorious Goodwood meeting....
And the base numbers would do nothing but back us up. Johnston’s had 29 handicap winners at the meeting since the 2006 edition....
Nobody else has come close to challenging the sheer scale of that haul. Nobody else currently training horses has even hit double figures....
But all is not as rosy in the garden as it seems. Johnston’s 29 winners came from 245 runners in total at a strike rate of 11.8%....
In other words, the winners don’t exactly stand out. It is a case of sorting the wheat from the chaff....
That’s not an easy thing to do where Mark Johnston is concerned. And I’m inclined to hand that job on to better and cleverer men than myself....
In any case, doing the obvious thing has never been the way of it at Against the Crowd....
Call it an inclination – or a chronic illness – but we take pride in being both unorthodox and stubborn. We plough our own furrow and we make a point of looking out for value-betting opportunities that the larger part of the market is passing over....
So, rather than pinning our colours to Mark Johnston, we are much more interested in the handicappers Ian Williams will be sending to next week’s meeting....
The man has a decent record of achievement in the Glorious Goodwood handicaps. One we’d bet most punters are unaware aware of....
Williams hasn’t exactly peppered the handicap races with entries since 2006 – sending just 18 over the period – and he might not send any this time around....
But, if he does, you should sit up and take notice....
Four of those handicappers won and another four made the frame....
The interesting thing from our point of view is the prices. Had you backed all his last 18 handicappers at Glorious Goodwood to the tune of 1-point each-way you’d have banked profits amounting to 99.2 points.
The winners went in at 12s, 33s, 14s and 25s. The placed horses were sent-off big too....
And, if you were backing in races where the bookies were paying out on the 5th place – as they often do – you’d have had two more placers at 12s and 10s....
Add to that the fact that early-bird prices might have been even bigger and it’s clear that Ian Williams has been a real profit centre in handicaps run at the meeting....
Of course, the past is the past. And what happened before is no guarantee that it will happen again….
Stats don’t run races. Horses do. Williams needs the right horses this time round. What his horses of yesteryear did at the meeting must be replicated by the current population. It isn’t the same set of animals turning out year on year….
But if the stats are omens then the omens are at least good. Any handicapper Ian Williams runs is of serious interest next week....
The other angle of attack that interests me is based on the idiosyncratic nature of the Goodwood track....
In races with plenty of runners run around the tight final bend and into the long home straight, we often see an awful lot of rough-housing – with riders and horses jostling for position....
It is not uncommon for horses to meet with trouble – getting bumped, blocked, trapped in, clipped and all the rest of it. It often turns into an equine form of mayhem....
Some riders handle the place and the challenges it presents better than others. Some have the happy knack of getting themselves into the right place, avoiding trouble and giving their horses the best chance of achieving their optimum placing....
Such riders will already have proved adept at riding the turning track in big-field handicaps. And such riders can be considered an advantage to a horse in the big-field turning handicaps next week....
For me two riders have done better than the rest on big-field handicaps run around the turns at Goodwood over the last three years....
For the purposes of this study, I’ve looked at the stats relating to handicaps with 12 or more runners....
Over that period, Andrea Atzeni is 5 winners from 21 rides – with another three placing....
Adam Kirby is 4 wins from 17 rides with another two hitting the frame....
Both riders have produced a win profit to level stakes. Atzeni backers are 29.5 points to the good. Kirby backers show a profit of 28 points....
They’re hard to split. And I couldn’t recommend one over the other....
But what I would be interested in next week based on the stats – interested enough to look more closely – is either man’s rides in the turning handicaps at a proper each-way price....
Both men are value for money in handicaps around the Goodwood bends – and they can give a horse a better chance than the market thinks it has got....
That’s all from me for today.
I’ll be back tomorrow with my usual contrarian take on the weekend action....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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