The contrarian word on Day 1 at Goodwood....

Last Updated: 30.07.2018

Monday, 30th July 2018

The contrarian word on Day 1 at Goodwood….

Saeed Bin Suroor has been in fine form over the last week or so – producing six winners from 10 runners and his SILVER LINE can take the opening race at tomorrow’s Glorious Goodwood meeting – the Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap at 1.50....

Connections had been racing him at sprint trips and 7f until last time at Sandown in June when he tried a mile for the first time....

And tomorrow he steps up to the 10f trip for the first time having done all his best work late on up the Sandown hill – too late as it turned out – that last afternoon....

He was only beaten 1.25 lengths despite a troubled passage in the last quarter-mile, but he was making most ground at the end and gave the impression that further still will see him perform better still....

He goes off a career-low mark again tomorrow afternoon. That will help. And so too will the booking of smart 5lb claimer, Jason Watson – replacing the 3lb claimer used last time....

Watson has been used to good effect by Bin Suroor this term – producing form figures of 5214211.

The 9s with bet365 & Skybet is not a common price for this column but pragmatism rules sometimes....

Silver Line has a lot going for him tomorrow and make an obvious case for himself. The 9s is fair enough. There’s no point reaching for a bigger price for the sakes of it.... 

  • A repeat performance in the 5f sprint....

The first thing I should say about the Chelsea Barracks Handicap (4.45) is that Duke of Firenze has dropped to a dangerous mark. He’s fallen 10lbs down the rankings since the start of the season....

Whilst he is now 9yo and probably not the same force he was, he is hard to ignore off 97....

Back in June he was unlucky not to hit the frame in the Dash at Epsom off 107. If everything dropped right for him tomorrow, he is surely weighted to win....

But at 10s he is short enough and, in any case, I’m not sure about the form of his yard right now. I can leave him alone....

John Quinn’s EL ASTRONAUTE is the pick of the prices for me at the early 9s with William Hill....

For sure, he is 10lbs higher than when winning the race last year, but he has done nothing but improve since and showed enough in handicaps earlier in the season at York and Musselburgh to confirm that his current mark of 101 is not beyond him....

Last time he was in Listed company and didn’t disgrace himself. Back down at this level, he can get back to winning ways. Jason Watson claims the 5lb and that will help considerably.

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….

In the Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap (1.50 @ Goodwood).

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – SILVER LINE (9s bet365 & Skybet)

Get the latest odds here >>

In the Chelsea Barracks Handicap (4.45 @ Goodwood).

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – EL ASTRONAUTE (9s William Hill)

Get the latest odds here >>

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for today.

Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing....

I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on the action on Day 2 at this year’s Glorious Goodwood meeting....

Until then. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd