The contrarian word on Day 2 at Goodwood....

Last Updated: 31.07.2018

Tuesday, 31st July 2018

The contrarian word on Day 2 at Goodwood….

They haven’t gone to post yet for the first race on Day 1 at Glorious Goodwood – and here I am with my bet for Day 2....

But that’s the way of it here at Against the Crowd. We like to go in early doors with our bets in the hope of bagging the best of the prices....

We’re not in the habit of waiting around to see what everybody else thinks before putting our money down. We take our own view, we don’t give a hoot what anybody else thinks and, consequently, we’re generally quicker to the punch than most....

If you’re still focused on Day 1 – this afternoon’s action – you’ll find our bets for this afternoon here....

  • Keep it Cool....

In tomorrow’s Matchbook Betting Podcast Goodwood Handicap at 1.50 the big question surrounding most of the 14 participants is whether they will stay the marathon 21-furlong trip....

One that certainly will stay is last season’s winner COOL SKY. He’s 5lbs higher in the weights this time around but I don’t see that as an impediment. And at the generally available 14s I see him as solid bet to retain his crown....

Forget his last time out performance at Newcastle in the Northumberland Vase. That was just too bad to be true and you can safely draw a line through it.

You can be sure that a defence in this race has been the plan for this horse this summer. And you can be certain that sharp-shooting target trainer Ian Williams will have him primed to do the job....

Ian Williams doesn’t send too many handicappers down to the Glorious Goodwood meeting, but those he does send have a fantastic record and you can expect this horse to be doing it all it can to add to that record....

I always consider it a positive when trainers take steps to replicate the conditions and circumstances that produced success in the past. So, I see it as a positive that Josephine Gordon is back in the saddle on Cool Sky for the first time since that win in this race last year....

She gave him a cracking ride last year on soft ground that wasn’t ideal for him. And he may have underfoot conditions even more in his favour this time round.

  • Two-against-the-field....

I could go in each-way about Cool Sky at the price, but faint-heart never won fair maiden and instead I’m inclined to go two-against-the-field and couple the Ian Williams horse up with Richard Fahey’s NORTHWEST FRONTIER at 8s....

The Fahey horse has produced three wins from three goes at 2-miles and if he stays the additional 4-furlongs tomorrow then he is sure to go very close....

He’s only been beaten once in his four races since late May and that defeat came in the Winton Cup over an inadequate 13f trip at Ayr....

The horse that beat him home by 1.25 lengths that day was Euchen Glen. He went on to win the John Smith’s Cup at York and is now rated 106....

That York race won by Euchen Glen is 10f form and the race at Goodwood tomorrow is twice the distance. But there’s enough in the collateral form to suggest that Northwest Frontier might still be nicely treated on a mark of 90....

Will he stay? We can’t know. But he hasn’t been stopping at 2-miles and if he does stay then he has a massive chance. And I want him in my book.

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….

In the Matchbook Betting Podcast Goodwood Handicap (1.50 @ Goodwood).

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – COOL SKY (14s generally) & NORTHWEST FRONTIER (8s generally)

Get the latest odds here >>

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for today.

Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing....

I’ll be back tomorrow with my contrarian take on the action on Day 3 at Goodwood....

Until then. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd